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Not when ur stock is trading down, though.

Where did you see i'm shorting USDJPY? I said you're better off trading usd short against something else than jpy because of negative carry reasons. I'm short chfjpy and long us10y bonds etc, i talked about these trade ideas in other threads i created.

yeah, market just taking out all the weak hands hoping for free money from the BOJ. Once the stops are out, THEN we can talk about intervention.

The value of digital arts will only collapse thanks to the existence of Dall-E 3 and the likes. U'll be flooded with supply since you don't have to be an artist to "draw" anymore. Here's an art i just made :) PS. when we're talking about an actual value of NFT's, say it's a ticket or you're...

Soooo, that picture refers to what exactly? That i'm catching a falling knife with this trade?

So, that's a smart question b/c obviously i'm long usd with this trade. Now the easiest (and the laziest) way is yes, to short the dollar outright (against say the GBP which is low in value but has a similar yield so you get minimal negative carry) or just buy a usd put against eur or gbp. I...

Hey, Here's another trade idea. Long SP500 Long US bonds Not that Sp500 is particularly cheap but the combo is pretty attractive again. It's the monetary policy that will help this trade. If stocks continue to fall then it'll drag bonds up too which is were you can gradually go asymmetric by...

Those stops going out all the way.

One of the best replies i've ever seen (Y)(Y)

Yeah, interesting how this article is written b/c actually vola spiked pretty strongly with that "break" above 150. Look at the last bounce above 9% from low 8s. Actual market is not at all this volatile so you know there are tons of option buyers and volatility prayers out there. Which is why...

What does it mean, USD is a math formula of other ccy's? that's not at all the only realistic way. USD will make a long term top fairly soon (top might already be in place), it's the rates structure break that will cause the weakness. It just takes time. It's interesting how people still...

No, these are long(er) term manual trades. Algos are built on a completely different logic. I might incorporate fundamentals into some algo trades but in reality it gives me zero extra alpha.

for some reason he needs to be right with every post as if his reputation would be hurt otherwise. So, even if i give a clear example where JPY strength is not at all about risk off, he just conveniently changes the subject. Oh well.

that fib, lol

1) I know it's a ratio, but it makes no sense to explain the fx/yield spread relationship through a ratio. 2) the chart missed EURGBP price, so what good does a ratio chart alone do? 3) visually both charts look the same, so why make things more complicated? A number of 0.626 tells me nothing...

what instrument(s) are you trading? having sorting ratio 1 means the only reason you failed Apex trailing drawdown is because you were using too much leverage. You can easily back off sizes like 10 times (if i'm reading your statement correct)

I'm not sure i understand this chart. Where is EURGBP? Where is de10y-gb10y? what is this ratio chart with a value of 0.626? I attached a simple version with both, the FX pair and yield spread. This is from 2023 and they move together pretty well. But if you look further down the history you'll...

this is what i wrote: "...But yeah, in the end, yield diffs and currency values always converge, even if it takes 5 years..." The "WHEN" is always uncertain. They can start moving together from day one, or they can stay diverged for a looooong time. I understood from your post that you...

We've been risk off since august when you look at sp500. Can't really conclude that the result has been stronger JPY, can you? In fact, it has been all about higher yield...

You talk about risk on/off environments but don't support the idea of investing in a higher yielding asset (carry trade in fx) ? Of course investors search for yield, where do you think the term carry trade comes from?