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I would love to personally accomodate your desire for shorting Hitman (by taking the other side of the trade), but alas the mechanism is not yet in place to do so. Perhaps someone can come up with suggestions on how to set up a legal and equitable method of transforming Hitman's equity curve...

I get the following error screen when I click on Your Account on the home page (this doesn't occur in the forums front page) : CGI Error The specified CGI application misbehaved by not returning a complete set of HTTP headers. The headers it did return are:

Assuming it's the same bird : Prob(bird hit) = 1 - Prob(both miss) = 1 - (0.4)*(0.3) = 0.88

ProTrader1 : No, the odds remain 50%. You are just as likely to get either a heads or tails. each successive outcome (coin flip) is independent of the previous flip. If this did happen, not only would the next flip not forecast an increased likelihood of a tail, but I would offer the past...

<< Sorry if I offended you Tom, but a few years in this biz has really attuned my BS detectors! >> You didn't offend me and there's no need for apologies. I've always believed in my ability to find an edge and I can't understand why a bright chap like yourself has effectively thrown in the...

<< I'm sorry but this is typical of the BS so prevalent in this industry. Roulette is a mathematically impossible game to beat. If you played it without time constriction you would eventually lose. >> Funster, in 1979, 6 years before "The Eudaemonic Pie" was even published, I forked out...

DT-waw, despite the many excellent arguments posted on the 18 pages of this thread between your first post 2 months ago and today's posts, you have not changed your thinking, which of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. Nevertheless, I would like to leave you some points to ponder on for the...

In my post "Five to One" - Doors (Trading), I show that a 1:1 trader doesn't need such a high win ratio, p (as compared to, say, a 5:1 non-churner), and that for one particular subset of churners, p can be approximated to (16*C+1)/2, where C is the commission rate per share. Traders with low...

<< If you are in a slump, you work on it before it turns into a serious losing streak. >> I have no doubt that it feels like a slump, so you have every right to take all preventive measures that you deem fit. From a purely probabilistic viewpoint however, I stand by my previous comments. So...

Jan 2 -403 Jan 3 +15 Jan 4 -1308 Jan 7 +345 Jan 8 -202 Jan 9 -36 Jan 10 +3 Jan 11 +613 Jan 14 +220 Jan 15 +462 Jan 16 -769 Jan 17 -383 Slump? Losing streak? Where??????? Hitman, from the above I see 6 winning days and 6 losing days, with a maximum of 2 consecutive losing days...

Good that you're not trading UCNT :p

Tony, << And one more thing, why is the commission rate for trader II higher than trader I by 50%? Isn't it possible that trader II pays less than trader I per trade? Flip those numbers around and see what you get >> Yes, it's possible - however my scenario is the more likely commission...

Tony, I'm currently slogging my way through both Mark Douglas books. I'm not familiar with your style and didn't claim to simulate it, as I didn't claim to simulate Hitman's style. Your book is next on my list :D wan2BTrader, Breakeven actually is 0.54. I don't understand your question...

Tony Oz : My definition of a good active trader (over 20 round trip trades a month) is someone who is profitable and has earnings to commission ratio greater than 5. But that's my definition. Why? Because I know of 2-Mil-a-year traders who blew out in their first down year because their ratio...

DATTrader, I'm not a big Excel user but I had no trouble creating a half decent looking candlestick chart using Excel 97. The data should be in this order : open, high, low, close (arranged in columns or rows). From the Chart Wizard select Stock, and then highlight the candlestick sub-type. Then...

hapaboy, use the Symbol Lookup link.

hapaboy, Specifically for Yahoo!Finance : ^TIC.O (NASDAQ TICK) ^TIC.N (NYSE TICK) ^STI.O (NASDAQ TRIN) ^STI.N (NYSE TRIN)

dottom, I followed a path somewhat similar to yours (sports betting, blackjack, poker) but would be hesitant to recommend it to a 14 year old boy. The advantages of an early introduction to probability theory and money management should be weighed against the dangers of an early introduction to...

I cannot offer any further comments regarding your 6 month flat equity curve other than the ones already mentioned. I am a discretionary trader and attach my 1 year equity curve for academic comparison. Annotations (1) The period is from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2001 (2) This should...

"As a trader it is more important to know that you will always follow your rules than it is to make money, because whatever money you make, you will inevitably lose back to the markets if you can't follow your rules." Mark Douglas - The Disciplined Trader