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ABC poll comes in with Trump leading +1% and the poll is oversampling Democrats 10% versus Republicans. If they had any dirt real or made up on Trump they should have released it yeserday, I think if we get to 18.00 NY time today and they no dirt comes out it's safe to say they don't have...

Breaking news http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/28/politics/fbi-reviewing-new-emails-in-clinton-probe-director-tells-senate-judiciary-committee/index.html look at what happened to price when it broke, there is your 'tell'. could this be a ploy to defer the election and Obama to stay in.

Very good question. On the first point about Trump 'walking' the election Implied probabilities of a Clinton victory are c. 85% at betting exchanges. I believe this figure to be woefully inaccurate and here is why. Firstly the polls are not picking up 2 groups of people. i) shy trumpers ii)...

That's cool I can see how you have interpreted the way you have.

Nailed today's high with 6 ticks drawdown after calling weeks high to within 1 tick. Just pure luck in these fair and free markets.

amen to that Sommi. There are plenty of markets out there which are not infested with bots because it is simply not worth their while when there is easier liquidity to be had. They cannot scale up in these markets and therefore they hunt for easier prey. From the middle of the curve back in the...

2142.0 in the Dec ES S&P future is a great spot to take another short. 2148 stop.

great posts mate. You come across as being truly humble to the market, you remind me of another trader I know who recovered from a potential career ending situation. It's interesting you chosen to move on from spreads. From what I have seen its the better capitalised disciplined traders who...

oh contraire. European asset prices are Americas lap dog. The point I was making was that looking to trade key events is often a retail mindset. Why compete over coin flips when there are better games to play.

I doubt many pro traders (the speculators) will be initiating new positions that day. It will just be too wild and emotional.

Yes because Hillary is funded by Saudi, Kuwait, Brunei, Qatar, Oman & UAE who are all champions of womens right and liberty. Some people are just plain dumb as a bag of rocks, thank goodness you should have enough awake people to end this.

thanks I just re-tasted a bit of my dinner when I saw you were pro Clinton. You don't even know who you are playing against let alone who your enemies are. your logic clusterfcuk continues Granted it's rare around these parts but making live trade calls is not entirely bizarre. Proper head...

yeah trading is a bitch like that, you have to be patient. The over eager are easy prey. Check back a few posts, I have called today's high to within 1 tick, this is likely the start of the next leg down. The weeks high has likely been made, enjoy the ride down.

the move is only just starting. the dxy gold equities correlation break was key.

Check your chart and look at my call. I called the high to within 1 tick. The market is not random it's completely rigged.

Its not just about volatility. If you look at the front future for any commodity you will see many cases where price is pressured towards areas where hot money places it's stops. If you check out the calendars down the curve you will see less of this behaviour. This is why a lot of the big...

From my experience trading decisions are not just identifying dislocations in a curve. Many are pure stat arb plays. Spread positions can be morphed into longer term plays. So for example you may be building a favourable price in a fly knowing in advance what you will do with the position if you...

The starting all in per side cost is $1.15 at prop firms. The higher volume players can get <50c. This opens up a lot more strategies. If you can get a fly on for $2 or double fly for $4 it's a huge deal. You also have to consider that big players will often average into positions because their...

You have to ask yourself who has benefited most from bailouts and huge QE. Is it the people or the banks? Bankers have funded wars and countries going back hundreds of years, its good business for them.

i thought the move up to 2150 in the Dec S&P future would have happened by now. It could still happen by the weeks close. It's possible the move could be early next week, imo they will not drop the price hard again until 2150 handle is taken out.