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noted error too late to correct: It is "Peters", not "Pauls" in my last post footnote US is running out of.

Point well taken. I did not mean to imply an immutable law. Only explain what is happening now (when other factors are very different). Back in 90s, opportunities to make money by investing in US caused a dollar demand and both rising dollar and DOW. (etc. for the converse) Yes, it is...

Point well taken. I did not mean to imply an immutable law. Only what is happening "NOW." WHAT IS DIFFERENT NOW IS: Back then foreign central banks were still willing to roll Treasury bonds as they gave "secure" positive returns. Now they give negative returns (in real purchasing power) and...

No!! Back then foreign central banks were still willing to roll Treasury bonds as they gave "secure" positive returns. Now they give negative returns (in real purchasing power) and certainly they are not "secure." (US can never pay them off - only borrow from Peter to pay Paul*, or run dollar...

Then perhaps you will agree with what I have recently done - moved 2/3 of my TIAA/CREF + Vanguard (403b pension) assets into TIAA/CREF's TIP fund. (Could not take out of TIAA/CREF for tax reasons. I have larger value in ADR holdings - so only trying to not lose purchasing power with these TIPs...

I bet the next "big crisis" RAISES rates. It will be when foreign central banks will not roll Treasury bonds. Fed then must chose between: (1) higher rates to persuade them to roll their bonds OR (2) US printing dollars to pay them. Given Bernake's historical POV, I bet on (1). That...

Clearly, there will be corrections and "dips," but so long as US deficits and BoT problems continue, the dollar will continue its decline. (Hit all time low against the Euro today.) The general trend of DOW will be up. (Months ago I predicted here that DOW would be near 15K at end of 2007.)...

There are whole societies of sensible women, Americans not generally included. I married a Norwegian. In Norway, at least back then, a simple gold band is worn on ring-finger, right hand, to indicate engagement and them switched to the left hand to indicate your married state. When most young...

Not an accident that DOW hits high as dollar hits lows. Several month ago I predicted DOW near 15000, based entirely on the decline of the dollar (DOW is measured in dollars. Obviously as they lose real value, it takes more of them to buy the DOW) The rate of decline of the dollar seems to be...

Five years ago, in ADRs. Two years ago, in small developmental drug companies, a few months ago, in TIPs. Details as to why are in my reply to Kowboy in post at: www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=89537&perpage=6&pagenumber=3 I agree the market will keep going up. In fact I...

No "stagflation." In fact it is already here (in US) if defined as the ratio GDP/(inflation rate) <1. In China's case this ratio is almost 3 as the just revised Q1 GDP = 11.1%

Brazil has the highest real interest in the world, still after about 4 years and you can not beat the appreciation against the dollar of the Brazilian real - took 4 of them in 2002 to buy a dollar, and now only 2 will buy a dollar.

I'll tell what I have done: (1) I saw this coming five years ago (expect the global depression, caused by a run on the dollar to be still about five years from now), So I but all I could cash in of my retirement (without too serious tax consequences) into ADRs. that worked well. (2)Starting...

Your (1) is entirely inconsistent with your (2). - I.e. if there is just one "world economy" then by your (2) you are you asserting that living standards are globally the same? Clearly not so. I.e. your(1) is false. There is a US economy distinct from those in other parts of the world...

Are you Indian or Chinese? Yes there is fantastic growth, causing unprecedented demand for natural resources and workers in factories* - I.e. a great and expanding economy, only it is not in the USA. Your point about baby boomers switching from peak earning years (AND PAYING HIGH TAXES) to...

Are you a carpenter? - You sure know how to hit a nail squarely on the head.

I checked. Sorry, it has been tossed - Just half dozen WSJs, some five years old now in my "financial newspaper" data file.

Please expand on this. I do not know what you are implying, and I live in Brazil (retired there 14 years ago from USA). As I foresee the future, the dollar will continue to drop and the Brazilian Real will continue to get stronger relative to it. Brazil will continue to increase its balance...

Jerry olsen, quoted by some here, expresses wonder at market strength inspite of all the negative news. It does not seem strange to me, as I try to think of the market's real value, not the dollar evaluation of it. (Sure it will go higher in dollars as the dollars lose value.) - call that a...

Its a free country. You pay for your choices. Me, I put my dollars in ADRs five years ago. Happy I did.