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Can you count? Market cap went up more than 1 trillion in the US, QE2 was 600 billion, a lot of which probably went towards EM. Stupid retail guys who are lured in by the "risk free money because the FED is buying it all, NOTHING CAN GO WRONG!!" is who are buying this market. Just you wait a...

You should be nicer to your beary friends here at this forum. After all it's thanks to people like me and the OP that the market can still rise ;) Without any bears any market will stall or decline.

Well, no, I'll agree that it's impossible to predict the economy with any form of real certainty (i.e. it's always dependent upon human nature which is not 100% predictable. That's what makes it interesting!), and I agree that cycles do not h ave a fixed timespan and can be interrupted for...

You seem to think you're smarter than the bears but your only arguments are: -Stock prices have gone up dramatically and the last time you looked they were still rising -Record earnings Sounds like 2007/2000. Both factors have no predictive value for future prices. ;) Anyway, I don't...

I've already mentioned on this thread I am permabear-biased, there is no need to re-iterate this. On a MoM basis I don't disagree that current situation is "normal", however the economic climate is not healthy, there are dangers which are being completely ignored and the indices are in...

Yup, that's what I said, but you're still better off not trading and waiting for the market to be more accomodating most likely. Unfortunately I'm terribly biased against the current market on a fundamental level, but the technical signals are not at all there that the market is forming a...

The retail trading portion of the market is not large enough for the banks to lift immense amounts of money from them - They mostly lift money from each other and speculative funds or hedging parties. It's a zero-sum game so it's mostly impossible to "lift immense amounts money from the markets"...

I wonder if this is a common human trait and what causes it and how to prevent it. Some talk about "shorting the pullback" and so forth. Of course shorting pullbacks is nice if you are really good at it historically (who is?), but even if you are expecting a quick pullback why not just go long...

Yes. 1) Rate hike (fear of) - More hawkish members on FOMC this year 2) Muni bond market collapse because a) investors will be getting margin reqs when they really tank and b) states cannot print their way out of deficits and must cut spending - negative pressure on the economy as a whole...

Right. This'll be my one and only top call. The top is between now and 15 points on the S&P (so it will top out b4 1305). I really hate making top calls also because you can't predict trend ends that well and sometimes there's a little crazy "pop" at the end to really drive the permabears...

haha. Good luck picking bottoms once the bear market commences.

Going by the COT, institutions are massively short while the FED has printed not nearly enough $$ to justify current price levels, so what is benough fought by shorting here is the masses who are hungry for yield. You trust Goldman to tell you what its positions are? hahahaha. Nice ;)

Yes, China seems to be a much more prudent, wise and I dare say enlightened state at this point. (Yes I know they resolve internal issues with violence, but at least they don't lie about torturing, killing etc civilians, like the US, hell they are even so frank to send the family the bill for...

Well f*ck me I'm a pretty convinced bear but this market has me convinced we are going up now, so at least I stopped picking tops. I'm in Europe by the way so I mainly look at the Euro stuff which does occassionally go down also thankfully. For a trader the SPX is unbearable anyway(pun...

Ok, well, hat's off to any succesful CL trader. I think it's scary and unpredictable. I'm more of a position trader anyway. Tried daytrading, which gives me an edge in position entry and exit I think but pure daytrading was never profitable for me.

Randomness is a choice? hahaha. Dude. I've never really heard of a consistently profitable CL daytrader (swing trader yes of course, but daytrading CL isn't a real good idea). You're better off looking at a year's range and swing trading it.

Given the way intelligence and other relevant factors are distributed (normal) it's also unlikely that the division will be anywhere near equal (i.e. 5 losers for 5 winners) but more likely 8 losers for 2 winners, even when those in the upper ends of the distribution participate.

Yup most likely.

Been saying that for weeks. Not only this, but also insider selling, short commercial interests, the economy is not really recovering and the market has overextended itself way beyond what QE2 in itself would've caused in inflation, especially in commodities. We'd either need massive extra...

I think the argument is much easier from both a psychological/animal spirits p.o.v. (unfortunately Alan Greenspan agrees so that takes away some of the merit of the argument) and from a fiscal p.o.v. I'd be willing to bet that the USD will no longer be reserve currency by 2020 (most likely...