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Not really. Either way, again, what does this have to do with the impact of oil prices on the US economy?

I know I went off-topic a bit but at least that was inspired by prior comments. Wtf does this have to do with the effects of higher oil prices?

Looks like a decent hedged short (buy some insurance calls you never know what kind of stupid pranks they pull with a 23% short float)

Morganist, I wonder about your general idea of commercializing macro economic policy, it seems a bit off. I don't mind people who make a go of it at all and try something new, however I do mind people who pretend to be all high and mighty while they still have a donations button on their website...

All right. I had not understood that point from the communications that I did see earlier (it's not really my main focus) and I was surprised with Bernanke's 60 minutes comments on equity prices. I also vaguely remember that Bernanke or some other FOMC member had been mentioning the goal of...

You make an interesting point, but it is particularly fair. The FED can't directly inflate the equity asset market and to the best of my knowledge it was not their intention to "boost equity prices and create a wealth effect". That was an unforeseen consequence of their actions. Their goal was...

Basically, you are right and the FED has not actually been "wrong" by holding rates. They just aren't particularly right in doing so either. The only problem is that if things get worse (i.e. oil $110) there basically isn't anything left in the toolshed to prevent a deflationary spiral. They...

To the OP: the idea of raising rates is not feasible in the face of an oil rally. As I mentioned, oil price rally is mostly deflationary and not inflationary, because producers will have to lower prices (thus margins) for everything to keep them affordable to the end-user. The alternative is...

Nothing personal, but your analysis is totally wrong. The fact that oil is traded in USD has no real impact on the value of the USD (Run in your head what happens if OPEC sells oil to Germany or GB. Is there a net change in dollar holdings in either country?). If impact of higher oil prices...

All right, I skipped over the part where it said "Margin account" so you are right. Interest and dividend part should still be taken into account though because with this kind of trades that's where the returns are most likely to be had. By the way I don't know much about Reg T but paying...

Say what? A short position pays out interest on the cash position. Also interest != risk. Depending on the broker's risk models the margin requirement could be anywhere. Interest payments should be over the $0 net borrowed (so $0). Edit: Forgot to take into account interest paid to the...

Agree with 1st part, disagree with the 2nd. I think that the financial system is way more "ready to collapse" now than it was in 2008. I think if nothing had been done to save them, it would have been catastrophic. Now it will become potentially catastrophic again if the collapse is delayed...

It's best to ignore comments from Buffet at this point. He's been bullish since 09 anyway so if you're a buffet follower you would've been long for a while. At this point he is just talking his book like any good investor would. More important is the amount of leverage in the marketplace...

Don't care for forecasters in general but I watched the video and he implies that the market is oversold in all terms, however could continue down, but will eventually rally sharply in the face of bad news which is going to scare people away from the rally until it is well underway...

You all realize that economists "studying lots of data" just means they looked at it, calculated a growth rate and extrapolated that into the future right?

Nevermind what happened during the weekend :D

Did you know also that the S&P500 can be predicted with 90% accuracy (or something ridiculous anyway) by elephant migration patterns in Africa? Predicting based on history is usually not reliable, although based on common sense sometimes is. Previously mondays were green very often, but you...

Indeed what the above posters said, it will probably slow down into the close. Just because you are freaked out by all the news and shit, doesn't mean the others are. I think markets will gap up over the weekend (in Europe) and then immediately reverse course. Cash equity trade might thus gap...

Why does everyone think they want freedom and democracy? That's such an idealist picture to sketch of the situation...

Hm look at that, uptrend is getting wrecked on the S&P now with complete disregard for support levels. Looked like the French had somewhat more respect for the holy uptrend but looks like the S&P is just going straight for the worst case. I wonder how many trend-following hotshot kids are...