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Well, IF you were so inclined to make a bet against nuclear then the time would have been friday or yesterday morning at the latest. If you short nuclear now you're most likely going to be late to the party (which doesn't mean that it will go up per se but it may not continue to underperform)...

Fuck this shit. I'll have a look into it but most likely I'll be tempted to short solar and long nuclear and short Merkel/Germany. Only a desperate politician who doesn't know shit about energy and is desperate for votes would use this event to curtail nuclear power. Get the facts...

This is really excellent. Probably doing someone a favor by bringing this up again.

So you think you made a smart comment because central banks have a history of not selling at the bottom (or very low anyways) and not buying at the top? Central banks are always in the market buying and selling. It's not like they've just started. You know a lot of central banks sold a bunch...

Yes that's right, but the relative value of things can get SEVERELY distorted in a supply-constrained hyperinflation (like I outlined in my previous post there are no supply constraints). Anyway, it wouldn't be unthinkable that one may trade a house for a car because it may be the only way to...

Fuck that shit. We're going INTO DEFLATION baby! Yeehaw! And it's gonna be GUUUUUUUHREAT. For mostly everybody, except the rich because they will stay rich and not get much richer. I'll tell you why too: -Only thing holding back deflation is money supply/central banks. Productivity increases...

hm. You realize something's different right?

Since there's no such thing as free money I must be missing something. What if you: Short Inverse ETF + Short Underlying, manage the trade in such a way that exposure to price volatility is a bare minimum (unless you are into that sort of thing), make sure that whatever you short pays very...

Sigh. It's not a ponzi scheme, it's a buy the dip scheme. You feel me? (Yes you are right it's a ponzi scheme)

I read an article on that once (forgot by whom and where unfortunately or I'd link it) but the gist of it was that for the best times ever you need a) sense of directionality/progress at the time and b) compares favorably to prior ages for A) the 2000-2010 decade is pretty much horrible...

Again with the JPM commodity myths?

When the collective sense of risk attributed to holding becomes greater than expected returns for holding. So it needs a catalyst. Libya is not enough on itself btw, but recent extremely positive macro data could be (sell the news), along with winding down government stimulus across the board...

Well it depends on how you define emotion and I'm not a huge fan of technicals although I do use S/R, pivot points and VWAP for entries. But why would you look for emotion when you can so much easier look at where the money is? If you assume that emotional traders are flawed then you must...

I.e. finding graveyards (where did people make mistakes). However the problem with things like that is it can always be interpreted two ways (volume that is). Is price going up on no volume because size traders can't take a decent offer/going down because size traders can't hit a decent bid...

I always tried to do this kind of thing also but the fact of the matter is, there is no such thing as "strong hands" and "weak hands". There is only money flowing in and out of the market. The only advantage we have as smaller traders vs. the big money is that we can dance in and out of the...

I think you are all forgetting that the US federal budget was relatively healthy prior to WWII and that, in general, the situation was just completely different. The biggest difference is that the people with the biggest guns (Germans) were actually hungry and economically disgruntled at the...

Fucking A it does. Explain to me why it would make sense for the .GOV to care more about food prices than does the average American?

Perhaps 2011 won't close red but you have to understand that if the first two months are positive, the latter nine must be by definition (on balance) red in order to get a negative close. Considering that stock indices have a historical upside bias, it is kind of obvious that if the two first...

Well, if it doesn't go up everyone will panic and be all WTF WTF WTF!

:/ If you do it right selling insurance is the best way to make money, however you need a large account size to have meaningful returns and proper risk diversification (perhaps 10m+). I wouldn't try being the insurance company on my own with less than a few million in capital. Also cutting...