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sugar... in the fight of the century?! I'm really not quite sure what to make of this. Wednesday's reversal day should be a major signal of a bullish outcome and was on similarly large volume to Tuesday's session. What has me concerned however is the price closed below the open of Tuesday's big...

Cocoa reaches short term target, where to next? Cocoa has reached it's short term target of 2235 in last night's session more easily than I expected. Given the ease of the move until now I'm inclined to think this trend is a little stronger than I thought and it makes sense to sit on the...

Sugar with a knock out punch drops below 13 cents. The candle posted on Tuesday by sugar has reversed my thinking about the structure of the last 6 months. Rather than being a medium term bottom, with buying in the mid to high 13 cent area - the sell off from the 200 day moving average at the...

I did not see that drop coming. Thinking about going short on the back of that large volume and move below 13 cents.

Some very exciting price movement in cocoa at the moment with another bullish candle posted on Monday. The price has moved up in a very direct way towards the top highlighted in the chart from October 2017 which was very close to the fire made in March 2017. I expected it to be slower going in...

Thanks for the detail @Handle123 there are a couple of things I didn't understand and wanted to ask about. Can you explain the link between the drop in open interest and the commercials buying it? Does that mean buying the physical ethanol product? If so what would be the combination of events /...

Ethanol at an interesting juncture. Just had a quick look at an Ethanol chart and it's coming to an interesting juncture. Two big bullish candles posted on the 14th and 15th of February on large volume followed up with some sideways consolidation and then a very bullish hammer candle finishing...

When you say you've wanted to be long ethanol for quite some time, does that mean this is a position you intend to hold for a while (assuming it doesn't hit your stop)? Or do you have a short term target? Also do you always only trade 1 unit (of whatever size) or do you scale in and out...

Cotton rallied early but now looks like it might fall back Some interesting price action in Cotton over the last three sessions with the price more or less stabilising just above 77 and then posting two impressive bullish candles back to back before faltering at the 80 level. I suspect given...

Cocoa holding well in the face of the DXY rally Cocoa is holding its own against the rally in the US dollar index over the last few sessions. Thursday's session was not great but more or less just consolidation in the action so far which is very positive and in the short term I fully expect...

A weak candle was posted on Friday by sugar and it seems every small rally in the last couple of weeks has been sold off quite heavily even as the March contract comes to a close. The May contract looks even worse. This is certainly not the price action I was anticipating and although it might...

Cocoa took an encouraging first step away from the consolidation around the 200 day moving average yesterday. The next obvious obstacle is testing the prior high from recent sessions around 2100. Another barrier awaits at 2150 and then the major hurdle at 2220. A break of 2220 would be a...

To be honest I don't think my website would be that helpful because it sounds like you already have a structure or range of structures with which to analyse markets and perhaps you were more trying to find what markers you could use to Orient your analysis of commodity markets - is that right...

Can i ask tomorton what sort of time frame you typically trade? Are you trading based on daily data by which I mean the open high low and close for one day comprises one entry on the chart rather than intraday time frames ? Also have you found that using some sort of weighted volatility measure...

Was this only because it went against you or that you didn't follow one of your usual processes?

I think the point is that you don't presume to know when the trend will end. That's the whole point of following the system in a mechanical manner. Some you might get stopped out on the first unit, some you might get up to 5 contracts and otherwise rarely maybe 20 contracts. We don't know what...

Cocoa holding at the 200 day, ready for take-off! Cocoa has impressed over the last few sessions, moving through the 200 day moving average in a very steady fashion and holding there. I'll be very surprised if the price cannot go on from here to higher levels. Great time to go long with a...

Sugar a concern as weak candle follows consolidation. I will be very interested to see Monday's candle after yesterday's very weak effort. The current rally off the lows from the 19th of January is now almost starting to look a bit more like a sideways consolidation of the last big move down...

Sugar at a crossroads - changing of the guard or long term trend to resume? In the bigger picture the 100 day moving average for sugar is pointing down and the market failed to overcome it overnight however on the upside the shorter term 40 day moving average is right at the current level so...

Cocoa bounces off the 200 day moving average Cocoa closed at 2034 and the March contract yesterday after bouncing off the 200 day moving average around 2005. This is more or less exactly where the trendline comes in so even though it did not post above the highs on the 7th for now it is just a...