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Yeah, can’t argue against a small allocation there. 10%+ is a little rich for me, although I am aware of the historical performance. But probably that high is still appropriate if you are denominated in a non-major currency. I was almost going to mention metals but always hard to know where...

Your gain on this fixed income arb will be inflation neutral. Short leg (mortgage) will be eroded by the inflation print just the same as your long leg and it will net out to a post inflation gain of 2.1%. Erosion of liability = +PnL denominated in buying power. The 2.1% will be multiplied...

You can take realized price data, and solve for the IV figure at a given past date, that if bought/sold and hedged, would have realized PnL of zero. So you can construct a vol surface where every IV figure is “fair value”, only in hindsight of course. Depending on where you are in strike...

If I had to trade this particular stock, and I was watching this chart for the past week or two; I'd be long close to EOD on the 13th--looking for some confirmation criteria within 3 days; either noticably increasing volume on a long bar, or a strong close [above the range of the previous bar]...

Good luck with your studies WchPl. If I could give myself advice a few years back I would emphasize a few tenets Spyder always said over and over... all you really need is your brain and the market, also, make FULLY ANNOTATED CHARTS. The rest kind of solves itself. Of course I don't know how...

If we all thought this way the boards would be a much more pleasant place. Seems like trading can't help but touch nerves frequently.. perhaps from being so difficult to master... as the art is seemingly opposed to a lot of ingrained psychological tendencies the average person has. Convoluted...

This is a particularly good concept to note; glad you mentioned this. Over the threads, especially in the later ones this came up a lot. There is a minimum gaussian required but no maximum as we see when trends often drift the same direction 2y2x, 2y2x, 2y2x. The term Signals of Change came...

Agreed; it's a bare bones pass of the current trends--there's a lot of smaller fragments underneath. But regarding gaussians to geometry--geometry and vol seq together both need to synergize to bound the gaussian leg. Neither follows the other imo. At least if you're going to avoid...

tiddlywinks--as I understand, eventually Spyder grew to understand what Jack meant when he said recycle your P1's.. it was merely a fractal issue, not an either or. Until the sequences are complete for each fractal level, the container lines of that particular fractal are fanned. So if we have...

Here's my 30. All my stuff is de-gapped so not quite apples to apples, but close enough perhaps. High pace give such clean gaussians. Everything up to 4/11 mid-day was pretty straight forward to me. From there gets trickier. Doesn't quite finish in a manner that has me thinking it's...

Anticipated us going up off the open; that was pretty straight forward. One long on Bar 3 open that I dumped a little too early @ post-OB IBGS--just sim for now to see how well the rust comes off. Watching less closely after the Non-Dom drift from 1030 onward. Found myself thinking we'd start...

Hey! I never know where to begin answering that one.. all things considered pretty good though. Have a lot to be grateful for. I still love this trading stuff... feel like I was really close to getting off the ground with it around the time we were talking frequently, late 2016 was it? But...

@Sprout , for an Ag sequence P2 needs to exceed P1, THEN another P1 occurs. Bar99 isn't greater than current P1 of Bar 97.. hence no Ag and tiddlywinks is right that at EOB Bar101 is a short. Also if you want to follow the letter of the law, look closer and draw the RTL from Bar 96 to Bar 97...

FWIW I agree with stepan and tiddlywinks. That is Spyder's teaching in a nutshell. This is the cardinal difference between what Jack was doing later on and what Spyder did imo. Spyder defined containers with price AND volume requirements, and three identical containers completed the X2X 2Y 2X...

Here's my charts for NQ yesterday. I had one long from 9:48 to 10:10. The FTT up didn't quite have the type of volume I was expecting for an intermediate-level turning point so I was looking to get back in for another leg up at some point. After we started seeing decent XR vol I had to...

That is a really good exchange between svrs and tiddlywinks. svrs has done a great job of explaining what the crux of this method has always been; applying a real-time judgement onto a ever-unique context based off a theoretical model. The amount of complexity and rules helpful for each...

@Sprout re: Your question about failsafe OB's. The fact is that a prior P1 isn't required for PP4. tiddlywinks and I both tried to illustrate what is required for PP4 already. We worked with jack directly when he was first presenting this system. There are still old discussions and charts...

That's correct by my knowledge FF. Because of Reverse Chronology the earlier volume events always take precedence. So following your example if we got all the way to a P2, then had a measurable bar with greater volume following after; it wouldn't just be another P2 automatically. It would...

In addition perhaps as a reference to volume suppression, the term failsafe as I know it best was frequently used for two End Effects based off geometry to limit losses. At the start of every new trend segment a horizontal bookmark goes out from the opposite extreme of the bar and if there is a...

Haven't annotated EE's for quite a while; think this is correct but there's a few obscure EE's and caveats that sometimes come into play. Don't think I missed anything but take it with a grain of salt. However, my intended point wasn't to dig into this particular example, but rather to...