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Sorry, Baron. I debated whether to include a link to the posting (not sure whether I wanted to continue to aid and abet a self-promotor). The posting in question was: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7697 I had hoped that the coauthor would become a regular...

Back on Aug. 8th in the Trading forum, I replied to a posting that I knew was self-promotion. An person whose user name was identical to that of the coauthor of a trading book, was using their first posting to promote said book. And, although I deplore spam, I had hoped that said coauthor...

Nice analysis, BKuerbs. I should have recognized the Chebycheff's inequality numbers (the probability of a random variable differing from its mean is less than or equal to 1/s^2, where s is the number of standard deviations). Chebycheff's inequality is very conservative and will overestimate...

I used the formulas for the binomial distribution from the CRC Math Handbook, which is the exact same formula quoted by BKerbs on page 3 of this thread. The probability of observing exactly x heads in N tosses is: C(N,x) * p^x * (1-p)^(n-x), In this formula, p is the probability of the...

RE: Data on N100 Stocks: Oh goody, yummy yummy data! Thanx jperl. Now, lets look at the results of coin-toss, using the binomial distribution. You will find that the outcome of tossing a 50-50 coin 100 times looks nothing like the results of looking at N100 stocks over the last 100 days...

OK, you are right. I guess I was not very clear on what I meant by believing in streaks. The issue is that there are two definitions or perspectives on what one might mean by a "streak". By one definition, when one studies long sequences of coin-flips, one will indeed see long steaks of...

Martingale strategy is a money management or bet-sizing strategy of doubling the bet size after a loss (see also http://www.allcraps.com/sitemoneymanage.htm ). It comes from the gambling world (scary how many ideas about trading come from the gambling world, eh?). A great many trading books...

The 50 +- 5, 5000 +- 50 is exactly right. Two issues here: 1) If price movement were like a 50-50 coin flip (thus having a standard deviation of 5 on the number of up days out of a run of 100), then we would expect 68% of the stocks to have between 45 and 55 up days in a set of 100. And...

www.dovebid.com is heavily into business auctions of the type you mention. I've never used them, but they do handle a fair number of office liquidation auctions. You might also see if any local colleges/universities/schools have surplus auctions. The stuff at edu institutions will be older...

Hmmm... first posting by "Mark Conway" is a book cowritten by Mark Conway. May I assume that you are a coauthor on the book that you are promoting? I know that I probably shouldn't encourage self-promotion, but I might as well ask. What is the difference between your book and "Trading...

You might take a look at "Trading Systems That Work" by Thomas Stridsman. It does discuss some of the areas that you mention. Note that this book is not so much of a "rule book" as it is an engineering design book. I have found the book most valuable at helping me come up with my own rules...

Aug 14th and Y2K are not comparable for two reasons: 1) Y2K was flogged to death by the media, Aug 14th gets barely a mention. 2) Y2K was declared over and done with by Jan 2nd, Aug 14th and all the accounting scandals will linger well into next year Thus, the amount of money on...

If you are superstitious, you could try going heavily short on the stock just before the close. That should make it go up overnite, right?:D -Traden4Alpha

Forget the "historical" average for P/E values. Too many investors have had their fingers burned by the current bear. It will take time for these people to stop thinking that stocks are too risky to be trusted. Worse, I am sure that "E" will drop too from both the slowing economy, expensing...

RE: Stop-loss Whether you use a stop-loss order to limit losses or to protect open profits depends on your beliefs about how prices behave. You SHOULD use a stop-loss if your believe that prices "have momentum" -- that when a stock drops in price, it is more likely to drop further in...

ROTFLMAO! And, I notice that the Blue Line shot up after 4:30 PM, so only people holding Blue Line Index Futures overnight or those trading the extended session made money! This thread reminds me of an ad for a toy from a few decades back. "It goes up and down and up-and-down, the Inch...

As rs7 points out, paper trading is different from real trading. Leaving aside the massive subjective issues of having real money at stake in real trading, the issue of fills also means that paper trading (simulations and backtesting) does not always give an accurate picture of how a trading...

LOL!:D OK, this is getting interesting and exactly my point -- the rules ain't the same for every trader or trading system. It looks like: 1) stops work for ElCubano (and I know that others on ET have strongly advocated stops); 2) that stops do not work well for hedgez, redzuk, and me; and...

Actually, all I'm saying is that each trader needs to test these rules, not assume that they are true. I'm glad that you have learned that cutting losses short is a good exit strategy for you. And I hope that it did not cost you too much to learn that lesson. Wishing you profits...

I used to think that if enough trading books said it was true, then it was true. For example, "cut your losses short" seems like a very popular, must-follow trading rule. Now, I'll bet that this rule really works for some trading systems (it's interesting to think about what types of...