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Good timing Lance.

"In the past 40 years, the Fed has always waited for capacity utilization to go down to either start lowering interest rates or to keep them steady, as the following chart shows. " <img src="http://www.steveosborne.com/img/rates.gif"> http://www.steveosborne.com/img/rates.gif

The focus has already shifted back to monetary policy. Stocks and bonds are going sideways ahead of Bernanke's testimony; oil and gold are correcting; but gasoline is still making new highs while industrial production data is pointing to a resilient economy.

The Lebanese government is accusing Israel of using phosphorus incendiary weapons. I hope this is not true.

No, they don't and Israel knows it.

I think this is going to be a short operation. Israel's intent is to first impose an air, land and sea blockade; then conduct operations aimed at destroying as many weapons possessed by the hisbollah while looking for the soldiers taken hostage; and in the process punish the Lebanese government...

Didn't you say that hisbollah represents 30% of the population? From the point of view of most Americans, hisbollah is simply a bunch thugs with their own interests in mind but it's much more complicated than that as they represent for many people in the region the last line of resistance...

Part of the mission of this military campaign is to get a hold of the long range rockets that can reach the middle of Israel. Concerns about those specific rockets (Made in Iran) with devastating range are such that the Israeli government is willing to take the chance that their attack might...

That would be great but there's also another complication. I listened to the arguments presented by spokespersons from the Israeli government and from hisballah on the radio today and the hisbollah guy said that they can't disarm because of the occupied territories, which is not a problem...

With stocks collapsing, I would be surprised to see ZN lead the way down today. At this point, big money is going to wait until next week to sell bonds or buy stocks. In retrospective, I think Lance's signal was a valid one but that turned out to be sabotaged few minutes later by the stock...

Thanks :-)

Do you use volume histograms to figure out where stops are?

I share the same concerns. While the build up of inflation risk premium is telling me that today was a good time to get in, price action is telling me that I'll have to go through a period of pain first before seeing bonds go down.

moumkin. How did you get the right letters to show? When I try, I see different letters than the ones I typed. What's the trick?

Ana assif. La afham.

You don't think that it will continue along the Poly. lines shown on your chart (at http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1130290), and that it will suddenly and radically deviate from them instead? Strange...

Makes sense. Using specific points of reference is an intelligent and consistant way to trade. Thanks for sharing your view. My point of reference is the impact the falling stock market might have on other markets. As stocks are falling, I'm staying aware of the possibility that they might...

As additional comments to my previous post, I would like to mention that the falling stock market is exercising pressure on the short end to pull bonds up while oil and gold are pushing the long end down, in the opposite direction. That's why bonds are showing mixed behavior this week.

Short term bonds and long term bonds are different animals -- Landboy is pretty good at explaining why. When the short term drives prices its because the bond market is mainly expressing its view about the current beat of the economy but when long term bonds drive prices, its because the market...

LOL!