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Right, I meant time working with you -- positive or long theta. The point I wanted to make, was that debit verticals are not always long theta, it depends on whether they are I/OTM. OTM debit verticals are short theta. It is incorrect to make the unqualified statement that long verticals...

long verts can be short theta if both strikes are ITM, e.g. a 85/90 call bull vert under AAPL at 92+ is short theta.

The big investment banks creating millions/billions in OTC derivatives poses far more systemic risk than Joe six-pack, who, IMO, should have every right to blow every penny he has and then some in the options market.

Let's face it, there's way too much poker on tv now. And now Cramer's show is being run three times each evening. BUT CRAMER PLAYING POKER ON TV, AS HE IS RIGHT NOW, IS WHERE I DRAW THE LINE. Waiter, check please.

I would consider just buying ITM calls on LQD with a decent delta (say .6-.7) and ITM puts on IEF with a similar delta. If the spread goes your way, you profit, but you can also profit if one side or the other moves sufficiently enough, or if implied vol simply heats up. Dont short any...

Sound like you are asking for "expectation": This is the key formula in all of trading: (avg $ won x prob of a win) + (avg $ lost x (1-prob of a win)) - trading costs > 0 You make money in trading by making this formula "true" for you. This is done by trying to maximize avg $ won...

look at the posts on or around 11/12/03. the p.o.p. was a long near butterfly and a long back wrangle, i.e. 7 legs (insane). the essential concept of the idea, simplified, is to sell near-term vol, delta neutral, against a long dual backspread "wrangle," further out in time. you can...

i thought we drove a stake through the heart of this thread ages ago...... sell a near straddle and buy (more) far strangles-- it's the same damn idea without all the legs. wee

btw i love the new charts. see attached. hehe.

what leveraging are you referring to? i have been with penson in at least one of my accounts for years. all the electronic brokers auto-liquidate customer positions these days and cash balances are in segregated accounts. tos also has additional private insurance over sipc, etc. what...

two-for-one split coming on TASR end of this week, so be careful-- open option positions will double in size while strikes will halve. wee

Cottle's book suffers from what I can only term as "intellectual masturbation." A very worthwhile read, but his brilliant mind actually interferes with the presentation IMO. He presents these intellectual tools like "syntool" which he uses to re-imagine positions as their equivalent...

let's see. target of 16 ticks = $250 per straddle? And your usual size of several hundred (lol) = $$$ good luck arb. we remember your EBAY straddle well so no comments from the peanut gallery. wee

Hull, fifth ed. for the math and the models.

turok, you can live like a GOD for 800k in many very nice areas in the US. that you would even consider a fixer-upper dump at that price is a mystery that confounds me over and over each time i read about it. if you are prepared to spend that kind of money, you clearly have options--- i...

ok, i understand about futures. how about the mortgage gse's as a liquid proxy, albeit imperfect, for the long end of the yield curve? good ole fannie mae (FNM) and freddie mac (FRE) tend to move along with bonds -- and you get excellent liquidity. TLT seems perfectly workable too. go for it!

probably better to turn to the cbot for futures on the very 10yr notes you have an opinion on -- the TLT etf is for further out on the yield curve (20+ yrs) and you seem to have a very specific opinion about a very specific part of the curve. wee

front month vols shot up to 123 on the plunge......

na, they'll send her to allenwood and she'll do her show from their soup kitchen. "it's a good thing"

We need to talk about Martha too fellas. IV crush when? After the conviction? MSO front month IV's 105%, apr 79%, jun 65%. wee