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I wouldn't have expected that but then again my friend is anecdotal evidence of the latter. So, the "only" purpose of risk management and position sizing is to smooth out the equity curve and avoid catastrophic losses, massive drawdowns, blow-ups?

Soon bitcoin bugs will be able to moan like gold bugs about the evil big banks artificially supressing the price. :D

Actually, I disagree with the OP. Risk management and position sizing (RM&PS) is never of no use. Even the worst trading strategy in the world would be less bad with RM&PS. :D It has got me thinking though. RM&PS keeps losses under control and reduces drawdowns. But how much can it...

It can't be the answer the OP was referring to. "What every trader has to realise, is that all the risk management and position sizing techniques in the world are of no use what so ever, unless the trader is aware of the obvious pre-requisite to trading any market."

Me too. Well actually leveraged plays like miners which have done even worse. I seriously considered ditching them in early 2019 and switching to BTC but didn't. Oh well. I could switch now but I won't. Maybe I'm making the wrong choice again, we shall see. Who knows, maybe this time is...

I imagine I'm not the only one who's a bit sceptical. There have been quite a few visitors to this thread, over the years, claiming to know the "obvious" and posting cryptic little hints and riddles. Personally, I've never really been convinced. No-one has ever said the OP revealed it to them...

What timeframes are you using when calling bullish or bearish?

Would you really risk going from a position of financial independence to only having enough money for 1 or 2 years? I'd discuss that with your wife first because she may not see things the same way. :D One thing I've learned over the years, is that whatever you think is the worst case...

Could BTC do a 100x from where we are now? Certainly a lot harder than $10 to $1000 or $100 to $10000. Currently BTC is only 2x what it was at the peak in Dec 2017 (over 4 years ago). Will we see spectactular life changing returns again? Maybe, maybe not.

No but Bitcoin might be. Using the metal analogy, ETH might be like silver. Others can be considered to be like base metals, in that they have some value. Copper clearly has value but you probably wouldn't use it as a SoV. :D Obviously some coins are just worthless shit (metal colored plastic).

johnarb, On further reflection, you're probably better sticking with what you're doing. Bottom line is, your family wouldn't be in the enviable position you're in today if you hadn't stuck with Bitcoin. Just keep a decent amount of USD on the sidelines, just in case. Something might beat...

This does mention Bitcoin and crypto near the end. https://www.flowbank.com/en/research/what-the-major-asset-classes-for-investing-types-of-assets "Asset classes for diversification Asset classes are one of the first considerations for how to invest. The idea is to have an asset allocation...

I'm sometimes a bit slow to catch on but now I get it. You're married to Bitcoin. :D To have and to hold from this day forward, for better for worse, for richer for poorer... I hope she continues to treat you well. However, if the relationship ever goes sour, there are other asset classes to...

I said crypto because what would you have answered if I'd asked "is Bitcoin the only horse worth taking a punt on?" I'm guessing you might have suggested other cryptos. Suppose you had to construct a portfolio for the next few years, and you were only allowed to put 1/3rd in Bitcoin (and no...

There's no arguing that it has been. I certainly wish I'd had the strength of conviction to take a position in early 2019. Maybe it's still the investment with the best potential over the next few years. But, in the current climate, is crypto the only horse worth taking a punt on?

Yes but there may be opportunities elsewhere where there's a better chance of getting a 10-bagger in the next few years. If you're interested in making money, why stay 100% in crypto? I suspect many who are currently speculating on crypto will jump ship in a flash if something else is suddenly...

If Gold keeps going up, I would expect Silver at some point to play catch up and then some. Current GSR is about 78. That could easily fall to 50 if Silver takes off. https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

There's another saying, something along the lines of, in the short term, markets are a voting machine but, in the long term, they're a weighing machine. I don't know whether either TSLA or BTC have been weighed yet. :D

The right hand side of that chart looks worse than my brokerage account, and that's saying something. :D

:)