It's very difficult to beat buy & hold.
Imagine starting with $10,000 when BTC was $1,000. Just to equal buy & hold, you'd have to have grown that $10,000 to $380,000. Most people would fail.
Actually, Bitcoin seems like a fairly good candidate for trading.
Unlike most volatile markets, it's not thinly traded. It's highly liquid.
Trading isn't currently dominated by professionals. In fact, it's volatility is likely due to a preponderance of largely "unsophisticated" investors.
It's...
Or you could hedge your bets and go 50/50 long/short, and see which one wins.
The only way this wouldn't work out is if BTC became a stable (low volatility) asset but somehow I can't see that happening. :D
In all likelihood, one of those positions will become worthless and the other will moon.
I only see Bitcoin as a speculative asset. And I suspect the majority of investors may only be in it for NgU.
I regret not buying in Spring 2019 when I seriously considered it. Oh well.
If I was a holder, I'd be concerned about how it might react if we get a major financial...
And celebrities, who only bought them to be trendy, won't care. It will only be a tiny % of their wealth, and they can always write them down as a tax loss.
Couldn't the same be said of gold?
Like Bitcoin, the value of gold is pretty much down to rarity. Apart from a few niche applications and jewellery, most of it ends up as shiny bars sitting in vaults doing absolutely nothing, with no utility value.
Buffett has always had a downer on gold too, even though it's been a SoV for millennia and is a core holding of most Central Banks.
Gold serves little purpose either. There are a few niche applications but generally it's too expensive to use other than for jewellery. Most of it just sits in...
I remember similar madness at the end of dotcom. No doubt it was the same leading up to 1929.
I wonder what (if anything) will survive the hangover when it comes?
FWIW, technically, the bull market is still intact. Both 200dma and 60dma still in an uptrend, with 60 above 200.
https://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html
We could possibly be in for another leg up in the next few months.