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keep posting. I look for this thread every other Friday or so...

It will be worse for me :) Not worse for the average American. No dust bowl, no food shortages, no police brutality, no cholera or other diseases rampant, no spike in infant mortality... Just a lot of bankruptcies and people struggling with downsizing their lifestyle.

lol, didn't angela merkel say one day before the German bank bailouts that Germany would never bail out the banks; that was strictly a US problem?

I agree mostly with ptunic. (I'm completely setting aside the point that his post was specifically aimed at the original topic in the thread, and now discussion has veered off into who's to blame, and somehow trying to associate ptunics post with that...) Owning the world's reserve...

Very interesting thread; thanks for posting. Are you the original author? Without agreeing or disagreeing, I have a couple of thoughts: - the mark to model approach: your making the leap of derivative instruments value in a liquidation scenario, and individual homes and their mortgages'...

I like FNARX, but I took quite the beating on it last year.

They may or may not. Many will be wiped out by all the forward sales they've already made, or hedges on their expected production (if they are companies).

I like to think of it in slightly more simpler terms: every dollar above the mean marginal extraction & refining cost you pay is the "premium" on the catastrophic downside protection insurance policy you're buying.

I agree. One of the best threads I've seen on here in quite a while.

That sucks, if true. He certainly portrays the opposite in his latest book. Of course he'd look to meteorologists for advice, and fundamentals analysts, etc. I thought he handed out HUGE bonuses though too... (not last year obviously, lol). I need to pick up and non-authorized bio of the...

What makes you say that? Whom did he fuck out of comp? Have you worked for him?

agree... I did find another article on it saying 97%http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=amfjPnq8fo6g&refer=home Too bad. I was thinking of pestering him to death to hire me for his clean energy company. I may still...

Anything that goes into a major tailspin over a net 1% year over year contraction must have something wrong with it. If we're really so leveraged that we can't take a 1% decline (which puts us back to what, a year or two? which was the record year in history at the time?) we deserve what...

all assuming that oil will stay below $65/barrel or whatever the breakeven is. it won't for long.

whaaaaa???? Maybe this is what he was talking about when he said he was going to reduce our dependence of foreign oil. lol If he really is considering it, I would be flabberghasted. Insanely stupid for a smart guy (im convinced he's smart, just misguided).

+1. doing exactly this. Pick companiens with strong fundamental values in their business, and that can survive a protracted downturn. Some energy companies come to mind. Am hunting right now...

Regarding potential confiscation, hopefully there's an exemption for coins of numismatic interest if we have that again. I'm thinking it wouldn't hurt to put on a small position of OLD coins just as major catastrophe insurance. Only one person was ever prosecuted for illegal hoarding in...

awesome. I love it. :D I'm going to go buy me some Cali IOU's right away.

gnome - still gold and cash? still afraid of both? thx

hmmm, so $5T of the $15T mortgages outstanding are owned by major financial institutions. It would be interesting to know what % of the $15T are now fancy slice-and-dice, no-one-really-knows-the-owner mortgages, and who holds them.