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The Oligarchs & Fed will continue the "extend & pretend" philosophy they've been using since the Lehman collapse. No one large or systemic will fail. The Fed will lower rates to rescue the regionals that have overexposure to the collapsing CRE & CMBS owners. In short more of the same bailout...

This is what I got from Google Lens: August must be the "never short a dull market" since wall streeters go on vacation. I guess when they sober up they start selling. So the expected loss for the next 2 months is -2% for September & -3% for October. Here is the monthly expected return for...

Is this a short term strategy or do buy LEAPs on them? I've made money buying OTM puts on LULU, ULTA, NKE, SBUX, etc. Former high flyers where the macro changed. I guess that's different than your strategy. I think shorting companies that still heavily on China revenue should be a winner as...

Your long term chart is interesting. If you consider the summer of 2015, right before China's devaluation of the Yuan, as the end of the March 2009 bottom to top it is about 2000 days. It seems like 1800-2000 days is the real bottom to top length. The Covid low +2000 days equals Q3 2025...

It looks like the hyper growth at nVidia has ended. It will likely resume if there are real applications like Palantir or Salesforce has rolled out. It is an iterative process. If I remember correctly Cisco had multiple 30% drawdowns in the late 1990s optical networking boom. Of course they had...

Its a 2 tiered economy. Walmart gains UMC customers that it never used to have before & CostCo keeps on rolling. Walmart is like a hybrid Amazon & CostCo now. They are the real Juggernaut. The low end customers are getting poorer regardless of a rise in minimum wage. Looks like they need an even...

It looks a lot like the board game LIFE by Milton Bradley. I remember playing it all the time back in the late 1970s. It also reminds me of the "Space Seed" episode from the original Star Trek show. The Khan character says that technology changes but human nature never does. This was after he...

No. They got rid of it. I'm not sure why, I assume it must be ratings. They also got rid of Last Call which surprised me. The Najarians moved to FBN & CNBC got rid of Options Action so not much options news anymore. My favorite show was Futures Now which they moved to the website & then got rid...

That was his mistake all along. He thought the Fed would just sit there and allow a deflationary depression to occur like what happened after the Banking holiday in 1932. Bernanke was the perfect chairman at the time of the GFC since he was a scholar of the Depression at Princeton. The mistake...

Unless Harris is a better candidate than her history implies, we will see chaos on November 5-6. Maybe even lock limit down on the ES. I'm pretty sure there will be riots where I live just like in 2016. The SF bay area really hates Trump.

Well they peaked on July 10 and still haven't come back. It could hinge on NVDA earnings.

Small caps, real estate & homebuilders is where the action is. I guess RUT in futures.

Looks like the free money train continues.

Why do you spend so much time here repeating the same thing over & over? We get it Crypto is a ponzi scheme on the verge of collapse propped up by Tether. The only problem with your thesis is that ponzi schemes don't last this many economic cycles. The radio & TV bubble (1926-1929) lasted 1...

$2.5 million is the median house in Sunnyvale. So you're going to need a little more. I'd say in Santa Clara County you will need at least $5-7.5 million.

I guess no one cares that the BLS overstated employment by 68K/month. Amazing.

Interesting how all democrats love Biden now. They all hated him a month ago. I guess they can't make up their mind. Pretty strange.

That's pretty accurate but I would say Oakland already improved a lot by the early 2000s. I worked at a startup in downtown Oakland (The Franklin Building, Franklin & 17th) from 1998-2008. It was pretty good around that neighborhood. It was pretty safe, even East Oakland was okay. I think the...

Why short SOXL when you can go long SOXS? It seems safer than shorting SOXL plus it becomes cheaper if SMH keeps rising. If you short SOXL and NVDA has another monster earnings report you will be killed. It seems much safer to go long SOXS or better yet just buy puts on SMH or SOXX. I bought...

Greg Kihn was great. I remember when I first moved to SF in October 1981 the local station KFRC used to play Jeopardy all the time along with The Breakup Song. I think Jeopardy was the first video I saw as well on the local music video channel we had in SF, i think it was on TVSF channel 36. I...