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Its my opinion this market is just AI spending & global warming spending. Most other things aren't working except a few niche plays like ELF, BROS, CAVA, CMG, COST, LLY, NVO, etc. I own all those as well although mainly using options. It is a strange market that is so heavily skewed to NVDA &...

I started out this year: 20% NAIL (3X XHB) 20% FNGU (3X FNGS) 20% SOXL (3X SMH) 10% NVDL (2X NVDA) 15% TBIL 15% Various fixed income ETFs/CEFs I gave up on NAIL about late April since it was obvious the homebuilding stocks no longer went up due to lower rates. Even HD & LOW are dogs now...

Well NVDA went from $94 to $141 in just a few short weeks after the split. Broadcom doesn't have nVidia levels of revenue gains so I would guess it won't go up more than 10-15%. It will bring in a lot of option volume since at $170 it will be cheaper to buy options than at $1700. The most...

I'm bullish in this market but all these perma-bulls here what were they doing in 2022? Were you doubling down every time the NQ went down another 10%? You will get wiped out with this strategy for certain in a heavy bear market.

So how did this long only strategy work in 2022? Were you also up 20% back then? Even NVDA was down heavy in 2022.

Its a very interesting chart. Looks like the P/E went parabolic from 1926-1929 & then again from 1996-2000. P/E went 12-32 in the late 1920s & 22-44 in the late 1990s. That's a 100%-150% move so if the parabola strikes again it could double. My guess is this what will probably happen, although I...

I doubt that will happen, however there are plenty of stocks already near 5-10 year lows like Nike & Starbux. I think Ed Yardeni has talked about this rotating recession phenomenon for awhile now. I think without severe cuts to the FF rate housing stocks are about to tank as well. If you look at...

Except for a few niche areas like some restaurants, retailers and greening industrials this rally is strictly semis & the hyperscalers and their enablers. Like I said before all you need is SMH & FNGS (or MAGS). I believe FNGS has outperformed MAGS. Another benefit of FNGS is there is a 3X...

Slowdown = no growth in the cyclicals so load up on the FANG+ stocks. I think FNGU is up like 17% in the last 3 days (mainly due to TSLA & AAPL). MAGS is up 6.3% unleveraged. I don't know how long it continues but the long NQ short YM looks pretty good.

The last few months Piper Sandler had become pretty bearish. Its obviously they were wrong and now have egg on their face. Separately, the mega-bear from JP Morgan Kolanovic got the heave ho this morning as well. That guy had been bearish since like Q4 2021 but refused to acknowledge the...

What is the macro event to create a 25% pullback? The worst presidential debate in history didn't even flinch this market. I think only higher rates would tank this market.

Is BTC going in the direction of the macro? It doesn't seem to follow FANG+ or Semis anymore.

I would say no since there seems to be no end to the ever rising sports team valuations. The Bread & Circuses culture continues.

My limited knowledge of Japan's debt sustainability issues leads me to believe that unless there is egregious inflation the BOJ won't raise if they can avoid it due to debt issuances yet to be done. I bet the Yen will go a lot higher probably 200+ by next year. The Yen is already up 13% this...

Yeah that's been going on for a while now. Most of the earnings from these food companies was a mirage of inflated costs like McDonald's, Pepsi, etc. The fast food companies were really egregious on that account. $8 for a big mac? I remember when they were $0.99 on specials. I think there was a...

True but another factor is the same problem plaguing the restaurant businesses in general which is the business model has changed radically by the high service employee salaries. Inflation of the salaries is the real problem. I think you could have paid people $8-10 before 3/2020 but it is...

Reminds me of the degenerates of the House of Saud who commit crimes & are involved in debauchery in the West but not in the KSA. Just another noble hypocrite.

I didn't realize things were this bad in Iran. I'm surprised they didn't try to retaliate against Israel after their bombing. That made them look pretty weak. Looks like they have focused their attention on killing "subversives." Reminds me of the East German secret police and their "enemies"...

The problem with Kinski is he's been saying that for a while. He's always on CNBC blathering his bearish take. I've owned NVDA on & off since 2015 and it has always been expensive because they are a monopoly (duopoly if you count AMD's Radeon division). They created the graphics card industry...

Nice investment there 300 --> 2520000, a nice 8400X move in 70 years. Actually its only a 13.77% compounded annually but still pretty good. Looks like Australia is like California here in the US. I'm sure the UK & NZ are in the same boat. Here in the SF bay area you see the same craziness. I...