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Okay so lets say an equivalent of 10 heads in a row happens in the market you're asked to bet on the next outcome. Suppose you believe trends (patterns) do exist and forecast a higher probability of the trend continuing. Then the correct action is to trade the trend. Now suppose you...

slacker - nice post. You reminded me of another thread with this post: I think it would be extremely hard (maybe even against one's nature) to think without making any of the above errors.

I've created an excel file I call "random chart generator". The weird thing is that most of these charts look exactly like market charts and you can apply all kinds of TA tools like moving averages, and trendlines to these charts. If you don't believe me, see for yourself. Type in...

To be a good trader, all trading decisions should be based on signals and not noise. Furthermore, there are far more comprehensive ways to manage risk than by simple use of stops which can always be moved/canceled. Jack Hershey has some interesting comments on stop losses - perhaps he can...

Isn't there a quote that says something like "the first and last 1/8s are the most expensive". The trend is the Signal and everything else is just Noise. Who cares if you miss the first 10-20% of the beggining and end of the trend. The middle is huge enough if the sector that is trending is...

Digs - thats a nice chart you posted above. People tend to hate bubbles because they either deny the trend and fade it or the get in right when its about to end. But bubbles are a natural part of the business cycle and play a very healthy role in the economy. During a bubble in a sector the...

Ed Seykota got me thinking about trend and momentum and not mixing up the two. He says all trends exist only in hindsight. He says that a trend is the 1st derivative of price and adds a lag onto price data. And Momentum is the 2nd derivative of price and adds an additional lag onto price...

The way SCT is market is really no different than how most snake oil systems are marketed; some claims are as follows: * It's a 'perfect' system, works in any market, all the time. * Its a new paradigm. * Don't listen to the conventional orthodoxy. * If it doesn't work you're not doing...

Scary stuff - didn't firms try to do this in 87, just halt redemptions and unhook the phone?

1 You can offer to be the dealer and charge the buyer and seller a commision. This role is filled by brokers. 2 You can offer to sell insurance to buyers and sellers so that they can 'hedge' their bets. Insurance sellers fill this role. 3 You can offer incorrect odds so long as you have the...

What about the Jack Hershey channels? Have you given them up? I trade that method now and it has improved my consistency dramatically. I only do forest level trading though. My question for you Steve is that have you found the same consistency in futures that you had with stocks? Thanks.

I like this exchange: InvestorGuide: Some investment strategies stop working as soon as they become sufficiently popular. Do you think this would happen if everyone who reads The Dhandho Investor starts following your strategy? As I've monitored successful value investors I have noticed...

I've posted on this subject on another thread. It seems really hard to get a position where your're trading OPM whether its at a hedge fund or a real prop firm. So most traders develop a 'go at it alone' mentality where they convince themselves they can trade on their own, learn on their own...

Yes life in the corporate world can be a rat race but so can life as an independent trader. Three of the most consistent traders I know personally admit that they don't see themselves trading for the really long haul. They're just trying to make and save up as much money as possible to move...

Thanks your thread was helpful.

Congratulations on your success. I know I'm not going to find a job right away so in the meantime I will trade and may not take any job offers only if: (1) my trading is flawless as far as no deviations from my trading plan and (2) if I'm making more than I could ever make at a job - then and...

I aware of the risks like I've stated in an earlier post. But not all jobs are that bad like the one you mentioned. Besides I'm not going to take just any job - only one in a somewhat decent environment and decent hours. And if its really that bad for me then it'll just motivate me to be a...

I have a multimillion dollar inheritance coming to me in the distant future. So with that in mind, I was really not into climbing some corporate ladder to nowhere after I got out of college. After a few years of working in the corporate world, I left to try to build my own multimillion dollar...

Of course there are plenty of risks being in the corporate world such as: - getting outsourced - getting downsized - dealing with age discrimination when you get older - losing your job to automation - inability to change jobs or find one, if you don't constantly keep your skills up to...

The jobs you mentioned with the exception of analyst are all sales jobs. I prefer not to be in sales, unless I'm selling a product I really believe in an easy to sell. As far as being an analyst, I don't think that's a possibility given that I have no experience in that. I'd like to take...