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Winning percentage is a measure that beginning traders cling to. It becomes less and less relevant as you develop automated trading. Winning percentage puts an initial gleam in trader’s eyes because of the constant sales hype traders are subjected to. Those who tout “profitable” systems...

The K-Ratio is an excellent tool. I use it for all of my daily and weekly automated trading. However, it is not available for use intraday. That is its only drawback. I also like RINA index in dailly trading. But, I have never found the sharpe ratio or Return Retracement Ratio to be of any...

When leaders of organizations die, leave or are sidelined- investors flee. Investors know longer feel confident that the vision the company uses to produce profits will continue to work. They are scared that remaining management will fight for power and destroy the company’s profits in the...

Kris – I swing trade an automated system in the daily and intraday (overnight) with stocks like AAPL, RIMM, etc…. Slippage is a big problem because of the pre-market spikes. In about one trade in nine the stops my system sets up get blown through causing large slippage amounts. This small...

Apple was a nice short this morning bouncing off resistance of late December lows. The next few days will be interesting. If it can say above the November lows it could have a nice pop up.

Selling your strategy to the public is more complex than “raising capital”. You are starting a software business. I developed software in IT for 35 years before I retired including several commercial products. Part of that included shifting to owning a computer store in the 1980s where we...

Let’s start over again (a phone call distracted me during writing, sorry) and I will make more sense of my post. I took out the limit column. My automation in Tradestation tries to look at the bid/ask and if the spread is too high and I set up a limit order that deviated from my original...

Sorry about the table. The post reply submitted in the middle of an edit. I tacked slippage from my automation of daily stock trades over 8 months. I used stops (normal slippage) and limit (limit slippage) orders. Commision were one big bucket for me. To read the table, say".. price range 20...

This is my slippage table: Price Range Commission Limit Slippage Normal General .00913 0.051 0.074 20 - 50 .00913 0.024 0.031 50 - 80 .00913 0.052 0.072 80 – up .00913 0.092 0.152

Murray t turtle – It appears we have the same memory of cheap gas. I also remember in high school when they could not give gas away at $0.299 a gallon on hot spring day in the1960s LOL. A buddy and I were going to fill up a big storage tank he had so we could drive the chicks on endless...

There may be a double bottom forming in daily USO. But the trade will not trade place until there is a break out past $38.75 unless this is a different set up than the typical one?

Take a look a USO from the weekly time frame. The last month’s USO price activity was a pullback in the downtrend on the weekly chart. Then last week’s prices reversed off weekly resistance. This weeks prices just broke below the previous weeks lows. Not good signs for buyers.

Interesting comments. 1. Passion. 2. All my summer on the lake swim, fish,... 3. Retired better than any pension I was ever quoted.

Tails like the one you show on RIG have been a trading problem since the dawn of trading. During the late 1990s when I traded Sun during the day the market makers would run all the stops at support and resitance points. I used to get some great trades by taking the contrarian trade on these...

A number of traders ask me to summarize what we have been stating about automated trading in this forum. So here it is: Most discretionary traders fail to understand why automated systems do not work for them. This is especially true for discretionary traders who have had some success in the...

Estim – You have an excellent grasp of using ATR an ADX but you have to understand the opposite side of the equation which is the characteristics of price data. This is the side of automated trading that when I grasped it - changed all of my results. The 60 minute time interval is only for...

The retail trading industry is in the Stone Age with utilities like debug. It will be that way until we, as a group, gang up on them. I was in IT for 35 years and today’s debugging facilities are what I used from IBM in 1968 when I coded in Fortran. A modern basic IT debug screen (IBM CICS)...

I attached a diagram of what automated trading looks like using a broker and a data server. I hope this helps. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2253703>

Estim – You have a very interesting model. The curse of dimensionality was not quite the optimization problem I was referring to with security price data. I understand Bayesian statistics can be a factor in hierarchical models with more than a few parameters and data needs to be increased to...

Estim – Excellent comments about batch testing. This is one area than can tell you loads about. I have run more than 5000 tests in the 12 years of testing. First, 5000 tests where most single file until I got Multicharts. This may seen like a lot but I had too many models to test until...