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I'm not. I don't think that the concept of backtesting that I know can help me find a profitable strategy. Maybe I'm just ignorant.

https://www.thoughtco.com/appeal-to-age-fallacy-250345#:~:text=Explanation%20of%20the%20Appeal%20to%20Age%20Fallacy&text=The%20Latin%20for%20Appeal%20to,the%20most%20common%20form%20is%3A&text=Sticking%20with%20something%20that%20works,argument%2C%20it%20is%20a%20fallacy.

I agree with you that you can get more confident in your mechanics, but I still think that for this you are better or paper trading or trading with a very small risk. That's like saying that the past is 60-80% equal to the future, Do you think so? it would very easy to make money that way...

As long as you guess the right distribution, right? It is a lot easier in a coin toss you only have 1 variable and two results. In the markets, the only thing that you have is the distribution of the past. Every trader is a dynamic and emotional variable. Do you think you can come up with...

For a skeptic, this sounds like utopian self-help book advertising. Progress and limits are very subjective matters, can be deceiving, and can place a lot of unnecessary burden on your shoulders. There is nothing wrong with it as long as it works for you or at least you think it works for you.

And when you lose?

"deterministic process in the statistical way" Is this an oxymoron?. I think that when you use statistics you're accepting your ignorance about the process, so there are no cause and effect relationships, no determinism. For example, when playing the Russian roulette you have 1 of 6...

Thanks to you all for participating, even in disagreement we can learn from each other.:thumbsup:

I think it can tell you what would not have worked but no more than that.

That's my point you can't know that it will make money doing backtesting, you are testing on only one version of the history. I agree that backtesting can be free practice but it is biased because you already know what the market will do. I think paper trading will be a better way to practice...

How can I make a robustness test? Do you have a methodology?

How can you be sure that backtesting can save a lot of time and capital? Can you make a control experiment? How?

A trading strategy.

How can you prove that the hedge funds made money using backtesting?

In the book Fooled by Randomness, Nassim talks that the history that unfolds is just one of the multiple possible ones, this makes backtesting completely useless, don't you think?

Naked?

Maybe you just can add it to your strategy. You keep trading as you know/like and you add a couple of lottery tickets to your portfolio, they only cost 6 bucks on the SPY, and maybe you get lucky. In an uncertain environment, you will never know if you will have to wait 10+ years, past...

Can you give me an example?

Like selling an Iron Condor with the long options on the 2-3SD?