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  1. longshort

    Still No Evidence of a Stock Market Crash (video)

    How about a one year return of +1,466.09%. Sounds good? Here you go: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBVC:IND Except that you're probably down in real terms. Pricing stocks in printed paper currency can be delusive. SPY still down since end of 2004 when priced in GLD. Current value is 2.50.
  2. longshort

    Bloomberg Foresees Bitcoin Rallying to $400K This Year

    Even without dividends, shareholders own the company and its assets, including the inventory, real estate, etc. If the company were to be sold or taken private for example, shareholders are to be paid out. Actual value exists in the real world and that value has increased tremendously in...
  3. longshort

    Bloomberg Foresees Bitcoin Rallying to $400K This Year

    Think in detail about what happens and about both sides of the transaction. Someone mines BTC at $0 and sells it later at $50K. The buyer had to fork over $50K and gets a worthless digital token of no intrinsic value, i.e. nothing. Unless that buyer now manages to unload to someone else, he is...
  4. longshort

    Bloomberg Foresees Bitcoin Rallying to $400K This Year

    You have made nothing until you've cashed out. If I remember your posts correctly, you held BTC through a 70% (or something in the neighborhood) drawdown. You might be the kind of hodler to keep on to BTC through a >90% drawdown (that BTC had several times in the past). Maybe some day it won't...
  5. longshort

    A primer to Bitcoin and the Blockchain | Adam Winter | TEDxColumbus

    How the scam works A to Z? Let's look at the video: 1. The con artist starts out with a false equivalence, omitting the profound difference that government backed fiat currencies have legal value from their status as legal tender that pays taxes and discharges debt. 2. The con artist calls BTC...
  6. longshort

    Inflation - Learning Resource

    The challenge is that pretty much all info on inflation these days is a lie. Central banks and the governments benefitting from money printing want us to believe there isn't any and if there were, it would be great. Pseudo-academics in cahoots with governments provide cover for this narrative...
  7. longshort

    No inflation

    Underestimate recent inflation just slightly and that difference in "real" growth reverses very quickly.
  8. longshort

    No inflation

    Attached is the exact source of data I used, gdp_current_real_per-capita_1789-2012.pdf. Which is the same as yours, Economic History at www.eh.net. Only difference is mine is inflation adjusted to 2012 dollars, yours was 2000 dollars. The problem is you're showing real GDP growth on a linear...
  9. longshort

    No inflation

    Not in the chart below. Complete stagnation? Let's work this out. Real GDP per capita (2012 dollars) was $1,800 in 1789 $10,000 in 1919 $49,000 in 2009 So far, that's a CAGR of 1.33% for the first 130 years vs. 1.78% for the next 90 years. However, the official CPI methodology has been...
  10. longshort

    No inflation

    First 150 years of United States had no or very slow inflation overall: Very valuable historical precedent as it proves that sound money has indeed worked in practice, contrary to all speculative arguments of why it couldn't.
  11. longshort

    inflation and stocks

    I solved the mystery. Since 2009, the monthly correlation of Fed assets and Wilshire 5000 is 0.85. Which means that money printing (manipulation) in recent years explains a whopping 85% of the stock pseudo-market.
  12. longshort

    inflation and stocks

    That study looked at "real" stock market returns (S&P 500 minus the CPI). That's not the same as actual stock market returns vs. more accurate inflation (1980 based CPI formula). Obviously positive correlation there as newly printed money goes into stocks first.
  13. longshort

    How Bitcoin's vast energy use could burst its bubble - BBC

    Comparisons with gold are futile. Gold is used in industry, aerospace, electronics, computers, dentistry, medicine, jewelry. What gives gold (or any metal) its value are exactly these real-world uses. With silver its industrial use is half of its global production. A connector can be plated...
  14. longshort

    How Bitcoin's vast energy use could burst its bubble - BBC

    Anything Bit"coin" is always going to be a waste of resources no matter what. There's no purpose, no end use for a made-up digital token that nobody needs. Even if the energy is near-free, speciality hardware used for mining is not. Typically ASICs made just for Bit"coin". All the BTC bulls are...
  15. longshort

    SEC needs to shut down WSB and indict the instigators

    Seems you touted your Ackman story a handful of times in this thread. How does it take away anything from the WSB manipulation, even if it were true? According to Ackman, you got the timing of his trading wrong as he made $2.6 billion before going on CNBC. In a letter to his investors, he said...
  16. longshort

    SEC needs to shut down WSB and indict the instigators

    So your point is manipulation shouldn't matter because... other problems exist elsewhere? There are always going to be other issues elsewhere. GME is a dying retailer, closing its brick and mortar stores by the thousands, about to go bankrupt. Games are being sold via download on online...
  17. longshort

    SEC needs to shut down WSB and indict the instigators

    You're reading it wrong. It really doesn't have to apply to placing false/pretend trades. The section intro is a prerequisite for all that follows, okay. But then each of the numbers like (1) or (2) or (3) are distinct alternatives. One is enough. Within (2) the only thing resembling your...
  18. longshort

    SEC needs to shut down WSB and indict the instigators

    You called me a "whiny child", "butthurt", "ugly person", and my friends "moronic". Have you ever met me or my friends before? It hardly gets any more hypocritical and false. Is a fact you made up. I was talking about those who did something specific as documented in the...
  19. longshort

    SEC needs to shut down WSB and indict the instigators

    Communication is in the beginning of what I emphasised ("by the use of the mails or any means/instrumentality of interstate commerce"). A legal term that includes any interstate communication. Obviously there's more to manipulation than just "discussing which stocks to buy". The entire WSB...
  20. longshort

    SEC needs to shut down WSB and indict the instigators

    There's a precedent where the SEC thought otherwise. In the case, the defendants later agreed to a settlement and admitted wrongdoing. The following text is from the link, emphasis mine: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2012-2012-122htm Describing the illegal short squeeze, Gerald W...
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