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I'm not sure if you're saying no trend can be exploited in that second paragraph. Observation shows that trends are exploited all the time, buy-and-hold being a prime example for most years since the Depression. As far as 'trending now', use a filtered price velocity if other methods are too...

Unless you know a way to predict trends, you can't detect one until it exists. The ker depends solely on the length of your lookback period; you can make it as short as 3 if you can stand all the false alerts. :)

People disprove weak TA all the time. Sturgeon's Law: "90% of everything is crap." kut's Corollary #1: "99.7% of TA is crap." kut's Corollary #2: "Rounding off 99.7% to 100% can be extremely damaging to your trading success." :cool:

-- according to the late, great Bruce Babcock : Trade with the Trend. Cut Loses Short. Let Profits Run. Manage Risk. :cool:

Which price do you analyze in your EOD system?

:confused: I know Blofeld had a cat. Did Dr. No have one, also? :)

Don't waste your time. The system went away for a reason. The guy was either a charlatan or delusional: "More efficient than real-time optimization." :p :D

:confused: This thread belongs in the Psychology forum.

If a trader is going to follow the trend, it makes sense to first find the trend. The eff ratio works a heckuva lot better than arbitrary MA crossovers. :cool:

"Buy low, sell high" isn't a plan, it's a goal. For that matter, so is "buy high, sell higher". Both directly translate to profits. The trick is figuring out how best to achieve them. "Buy strength, sell weakness" (trend following) is a plan. It's not a perfect plan but it beats trying to...

I think the paper illustrates a common theme among those who want to trade (including myself): we run to digital signal processing in the hopes of finding some fundamental insights or methods of analysis to apply to financial data and we quickly run into diminishing returns. The more astute...

Yes it can be used in any timeframe. Kaufman revealed his efficiency ratio in his book SMARTER TRADING, where he used it as the basis for his adaptive moving average. But it can be used independently of the ama as a trend-quality indicator...

Written by mathematicians for other mathematicians, not for real practicioners of trading. And it's another attempt to force a square peg into a round hole: another linear solution applied to a nonlinear problem. :(

Use Perry Kaufman's efficiency ratio, the perfect trend indicator. Use the unsigned version. If it's greater than +1/3, you're in an uptrend. If it's less than -1/3, you're in a downtrend. If it's between +1/3 and -1/3, you're in the chop. :cool: