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Remember this kid? http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/new-york-schoolboy-who-made-72million-trading-stocks-on-his-lunch-breaks.288398/

https://www.stockpickingchallenge.com/ Is this legit? All on-topic comments welcome.

What makes trading gambling is the ignorance of the trader. Not knowing if he truly has an edge, not knowing how to maintain discipline, not knowing how to position size ... any of these things can change what should be a winning strategy into a losing strategy.

This is what makes trading "fun". There's no guarantee that price won't move against you shortly after you enter a trade. But the best indication that price is going to move a certain way is that it is already moving that way. Hence the value of trend following.

Why in advance? If I know a market is trending right now, I can just jump on board and ride that trend to profits. No need for prediction.

No but every now and then it would be nice if some guru did a backtest or two, you know, just to kinda back up these great methods they're always advocating.

Excel is great for all backtesting. No programming required. And figuring out how to make excel work for you is a great mental workout. I highly recommend it.

Unless he's doing hfts (hundreds of trades per day), he's going to encounter every type of market over 1000 or so trades. 3000 is fine as a personal choice but not as a recommendation to newbies who are still trying to get a starting strategy.

300 is probably too low but 3000 is excessive. Let's say you want to determine your system's winrate. For proportions (like winrate) the error associated with sample size is 1/√n. This is for 95% confidence. So a sample size of 100 is an error in the proportion estimation of ±10%. To cut...

How did you come up with a minimum of 3000 trades?

I get your meaning. But if by objective you mean there's only one way to interpret a given TA technique, you know that's not always the case. Especially for pattern recognition. Even the classic definition of an uptrend as "higher highs and higher lows" has exceptions the acceptance of which...

Yours as well, surf. You claim none of it is objective. The truth is TA lies between the two extremes of entirely subjective and entirely objective. TA is vast; it contains multitudes.

It's not information until it's applied to data. Before that, it's a set of tools. I get it. You want TA to be treated with respect so you claim it's all objective. That's a nice lovely fiction but a fiction nonetheless. TA is a messy hodge-podge of mostly adhoc techniques that were...

What do you think TA is besides a set of tools? If you want a "blueprint" (by which I presume you mean a trading plan), then go to the Strategy Design forum, not the Technical Analysis forum. The point of TA is to transform financial time-series data into forms that indicate some specific...

So by your definition, if it can't be coded, it's not really TA. Sorry, that makes you an outlier, it doesn't make you right.

Nonsense. Almost everything I've read about PA is subjective. Candlesticks: subjective. Classical patterns: subjective. "Cup and saucer"? Seriously? This stuff is tea-leaf reading and highly subjective. Almost any part of TA that can't be quantified is in all likelihood subjective.

The reason the naysayers focus on TA is because so much it is discretionary aka subjective and thus not scientifically analyzable or programmable. And the part of TA that can be objectified (primarily the technical indicators) is mostly garbage and thus easily subjected to ridicule. You've...

How will new people ever learn whether it works for them if the naysayers are allowed to dominate the conversation? I'm not doing this for surf, his mind is made up and no counter-facts will change it. This is for the new trader or the veteran who is on the fence regarding TA. Don't let the...

In other words, you can't disprove it. Yeah I knew that. Of course since you have Aronson's book (and I don't), it should be child's play for you to test the system with Aronson's methodology. You or your PhD wife. Not holding my breath on that happening. As far as academic studies...

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/just-show-me-one-mechanical-technical-analysis-that-has-been-profitably-backtested.147576/page-5#post-2218032 One simple system with consistent profits. Are you going to address this or are you going to vanish again?