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You can keep the discussion going. I don't mind as long as harassment is not present. Bear in mind I am in the middle of some experiment. I am not supposed to change the parameters when it's ongoing. Nevertheless, suggestions are not ignored; I have taken notes of many things from this...

No big reaction to the data.

Waiting for home sales data.

6 point range (988-994) overnight. volatility is back. Feeling is I will make some trades today.

No argument, everything you said is right. The problem is misunderstanding. You may not see clearly what I am trying to do here. Though I trade only 1 contract, I am working with two timeframes, weekly and daily. I actually have a sell and hold short position on the weekly (from the bias) and...

Nothing can be gained arguing this point. We both may quote some successful trader for support.

Even though English is my second language, I would argue "missed trades cost you more than bad trades" means "all your missed trade as a whole cost more than all your bad trades as a whole", not "each missed trade costs you more than each bad trade". Correct me if I am wrong. During the...

This experiment is ongoing and the number is what I am trying to find out. However, TGregg provided some insightful statistic to show that my system should be extremely close to breakeven. I am trying to make improvements from there. It's on page 3 of this thread. How many had the patience to...

I could change to a system which always gives late entry, or a mix of early and late entry, but there is no guarantee that the loss from being late is smaller than the loss from being early. A system that's early is trend fading, and a system that's late is trend following. These is no...

It has been my observation by now that the average poster on this board has rather limited knowledge about statistics. It's very hard, if not impossible, to win in this game if you are not proficient with statistics. OldTrader, please don't take this personally. If you talk about the size of...

I don't pretend to understand everything said in the book. Some I understand but I don't know how to make use of. Can you elaborate how you apply what you quote in your trading?

I will quote from Market Wizards again. It's the book I reread the most times. Some say it's worth its weight in gold ($2000), I think it's worth its size in gold ($40000). One trader said missed trades cost you more than bad trades. Most time there is a mechanism such as stops to get you out...

I am short because I believe the next move is down. As long as it remains sideways, I don't lose anything. I don't see any problem in this. If one is buying puts, then it's a different story.

The difference is this time if my system tells me the bias has changed to up again, I will trade from the up side. I overuled my system in March through June. Do you see the difference in attitude? Whether my system is good over long time is a different matter. I hope you don't dispute that.

SPX trend was up through late June. Since then I read sideways. My down bias means what's coming next more likely is a down trend, hence it's more likely to make money on the down side. The down bias also means I will trade only from the short side. Since I am anticipating that the trend will...

8/22/03 Day 5 Bias: down Position: open from 990 on 8/15/03 P/L: -2 points Sell and hold P/L: -2 points No fear, no greed, lots of patience

20 point range (992-1012) for the day. What a day! It unfolded in the way I least expected. And so many interesting discussions to follow. Not a bad day at all.

What I mean is I don't change my mind (bias) when the position remains open. I will reevaluate after the close of the position (either target or stop is hit).

That will be nice but I do not count on it. The market may gap up again on Monday and I have to stop out. When I put on this position, I was prepared for either outcome.

This is a result of understanding statistics. Do you believe the probability of raining tomorrow is always 50%?