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I recognize the difference. You can call my action superstition if you want, but it does give me comfort. Trading is a psychological game. I know I need confidence, and this is giving me confidence. The technical aspect is secondary.

This is not statistics. This is "the probability of raining tomorrow is 50%". Statistical information you may find useful in the market include things like "the chance of the price revisiting its current level sometime in the future is very high".

Another fine example of speaking without knowing what one is talking about.

My baseline method (sell and hold) is very similar to yours. Good entry, wide stop, milk the trade, etc. I know it works because that's how I ran my account from $9,000 to $16,000 last year. I don't know your timeframe, but I use the weekly and I held onto positions for weeks even months. My...

4 point range (993-997) overnight. Gold rises.

MBA number out. No one is paying attention. No more economic data today.

My problem is the contrary--I tend to over-analyze.

Believe it or not, there is very little difference between our approaches. I will show you when I have more time.

What the heck! Why not use (18,9) as is? This should not change the course of the experiment so far. OK, so (18,9) it is. GTC buy @982 cancelled, replaced by GTC buy @981.

Just went back to check and surprised to see it's (18,9). My momery isn't so great. Should I stick with the 8 or change to 9? More headache.

I have to be honest with myself. Ever since TGregg (page 3) posted that (19,8) had a better expectation than (20,5), I have been fighting with myself whether to switch to a target of 8. The fact that I had a GTC buy @982 from day 1 and I declined to take a 5 point profit today clearly...

5 was meant to be an average. This GTC buy @982 order was put in since day 1. So when I saw it's missed, I really didn't want to change it. Oh well, I escaped 1012, now I missed 982, I guess it's even now. There is always another opportunity in the market.

8/26/03 Day 7 Bias: down Position: open from 990 on 8/15/03 P/L: -6 points Sell and hold P/L: -6 points No fear, no greed, lots of patience

15 point range (983-998) day. GTC buy @982 missed by 0.5 points when I was in a meeting. Then it hovered around 985 for a couple hours. Decided to leave the order alone and went to another meeting. Bang, a bottle rocket. Someone must have made money today, not me.

Not much reaction to durable goods orders. Waiting for consumer confidence and new home sales.

4 point range (991-995) overnight. Waiting for durable goods number.

Can you elaborate how you apply highest-and-best-use of capital in your trading?

8/25/03 Day 6 Bias: down Position: open from 990 on 8/15/03 P/L: -4 points Sell and hold P/L: -4 points No fear, no greed, lots of patience

7 point range (987-994) day. Volatility appeared overnight but quickly faded away after NY opening. Didn't find any opportunity to trade today. My feeling in the morning was wrong again. A few more bad guesses like that and someone should be able to fade my predictions and make money.