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05-14-19 : Long SB K/N/V20 @ 0.07. - Kink on the curve. - Low level. -Seasonals.

I read about it after initiating the trade, but it doesn't look like the trade is paying attention. Even Brent is red. And I didn't place my stop too close. Obviously I will reconsider if a real military conflict starts.

05-13-19 : Short HO Q/U @ -0.0062. - High historical level. - IMO2020 is still 4 months after those expiries. - Seasonals

+ the Donald still in charge of Chinese negociation = death spiral for soy

One of the best market wizards interview.

Out @ -2. Crap.

Indeed it is interesting. I would have guessed they were close in volatility.

1. Picked the pair of expiries that looked most extreme on a historical basis, perhaps not worth the extra uncertainty It was just rhetorical. In this case, I doubt it will change the outcome. But beware of "choosing the historical/backtesting best case with no fundamental justification. 2. I...

Hello BorsBamse, If I hadn't already been destroyed 2 times this year on this spread, perhaps I would consider it. Your points and methodology are valid. IMO It has a positive expectancy. A few remarks though : - Why are using 2 differents expiries? You are another layer of uncertainty. Some...

Short CT H20/N20 @ 0.65. - New crop spreads rallied a bit too much based on planting intentions. - Cotton plantings advance seems normal. - Seasonals.

I have never said I had a position on HO K/N. It was merely an observation of yesterday's action. HO spreads were the only ones not moving.

The reaction was spread across all energy outrights and spreads except HO K/N. Thoughts?

Out @ -6. A bit of heat at the start but then it behaved like planned.

Eurex or EEX has some pork contracts, active but extremely thin last time I checked.

Generally, I am looking to have almost the same risk/reward in $ terms on each trade. So my size is really dependent on the product. When I am really confident in a trade, I may look for 1.5 times my average risk/reward.

Bullish or bearish Brent/WTI on the long term? Brent will surely receive the most premium initially from the threat of Hormuz shutdown, but there is some talks about US Shale ultra light crudes being the best replacement for Iranian condensates...

https://blogs.platts.com/2019/04/16/us-oil-change-pace-2019/

Out @ 2687. Small gain.

Just shorted HO N/F @ -0.0422 based on the previous post.