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If it was discovered after monday, perhaps he would have been praised for his opportunistic hedge strategy...

Not even related to the saudi events... Good ol' fashioned bets disguised as customer orders... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rogue-oil-trader-lost-320-million-wrong-way-derivatives-bets-mitsubishi-says

For once I am happy I was in vacation last week, I am pretty sure I would have been net short energies going into the week end...

09/12/2019 : Out @ 3.2. Good trade.

09/11/2019 : Out @ -8.75. Oversold on the curve + WASDE tomorrow. Good trade.

Out @ 27. I closed it partly because I am in vacation in Alaska with limited access to internet, but I should simply stop trading cocoa. My results over years are terrible.

Interesting that Ukraine is higher.

Hello Overnight, as Rachmaninov said, it is a no event IMO. Japan already buys most of its ag products in the US. What caught my attention on the other side is that PF crop tour came out with 163 bpa yield Vs USDA at 169. I am on vacation so I didn't go deeper but some spreads might be cheap...I...

08/23/2019: Out @ 1. Not what I envisioned, but I will take it.

Yes. It has. But it is already super low and the risk is on the upside now...

I just went long the intercrop ZC N20/U20 spread. The market is pricing less risk in this crop than last year at this time with the 2018 bumper crop...

08/22/2019 : Long ZC N20/U20 @ -1.5 over the last few days. - The crop tour is showing that even if it is better than originally thought, this crop is far from good and an early frost can be devastating. - ZC N20/U20 is lower than ZC N19/U19 at this time last year with the huge crop. - Corn...

08/20/2019 : Out @ -4.25. A good reminder that free money doesn't really exist.

The thing is fundamentals is probably the one that takes the longest to get up to speed. You just have to read constantly about the markets you trade. For energy, read platts.com and argus media articles, The Barrel Blog, listen to Platts podcasts. For agriculture, read DTN and agweb articles...

Hello.Advantage Futures now. TT non-pro.

I am looking at a target much lower than 0, but yes, for a fly in particular, if you don't have discounts( I am a NYMEX member ), you will lose 2 ticks in commissions and fees. So you need to go for more than 7 ticks IMO. I have no opinion on V/Z. My fly looks much safer for a short.

08/06/2019 : Short CL F/G/H fly @ 0.07 - The backwardation got really steep and the fly is really high. - Fear of recession and lower oil demand. - WTI isn't a good crude to produce IMO 2020 diesel compared to other grades. -Seasonals.

08/16/2019 : Short CC U20/Z20 @ 9. - The front of the curve is sinking after July run up. - Good weather and crop conditions in West Africa. -Seasonality.

Do you pay for CBOT with IB? I am an IB customer as well as a back up/equities broker, If you don't pay, you don't have the real quotes. But the market is closed now... On monday, if you want to buy it, you have to sell it on IB... IB spreads are inverted. they quote -Front/+Deferred.

So if that -4 offer is not Mr Quaker himself, I don't know how it would stand there... Don't blame me though if you lose...I am losing as well...