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Wow, I had no idea this was happening. Are you sure it's on the tape?

Not that it's totally relevant to this thread, but that guy is VERY VERY good at what he does. I know him personally; he's not arrogant at all. Great dude, in fact. I won't mention his name since you didn't.

I know that I had to have a new TT gateway installed last night.

Oh really? What happens when you put a discount rate of 10% into all those neat excel DDM sheets instead of 5%?

How long have you been trading? Given that the ES went live in 1997, and the "tech bubble" resulted in 3 years of deep red, seems like at least 30% of your career, you've been... dead wrong. In the interest of full disclosure, I'm not particularly bearish on US stocks; but you permabulls are...

I currently trade on my own. But I'd like to explore some alternatives, and am wondering if those @ prop firms could answer a few questions. 1. If I put up $25/50k, can I get 100% of my account? I'm assuming the firm's juice would come from desk fee, commish, etc. 2. Can I get...

Sep settles into the AVERAGE EFFECTIVE OVERNIGHT rate. The target has nothing to do with actual settlement. So far in September we have 17/30 days with an average rate of 5.06. The implied average rate for the month from the futures price is 5.01 (assuming 94.99 last). 5.01 = (rest of...

Sep still trades. And it's saying roughly 40% chance of 50 bps. October is slightly higher than that, because of the chance of an intermeeting cut.

You'd rather lie to them?

Did you take math in junior high school?

@Trefoil: I can agree with some of what you've said. Earnings next week are certainly more important for the equities picture in the short term than the Fed announcement. In fact, if you're right and LEH is ok, and there's a selloff after a 25 bps announcement, it'll be a great short-term...

You have no idea what you're talking about. The goal of options market making firms is to collect the bid/ask spread while minimizing risk within reason. Their only directional bias is the one that generates the most business.

Always and everywhere, political reality trumps all else. Think about it: if Bernanke doesn't cut rates, and the economy slips (even if that is unlikely), he's completely fucked. If he cuts 25 and it wasn't necessary, it's easily explained away by the data and the clamoring of the street...

Today's retail sales data were weak, even accounting for a reduction in the cost of gasoline. I now believe there is no chance for a 0 cut next week, and the odds are 80/20 for 25 vs 50. 25 bps remains the *prudent* course of action.

Wtf? Is Jack Hershey a babelfish bot?

omglol

Not sure I understand what you're asking. The fed has recently declared that they currently believe the risks of recession outweigh the risks of inflation. I don't expect that to change (and neither does the market, if the futs are any indication).

Shit, I don't know. They're high. =) One way to figure it: you sell Oct @ 96.16 (current bid). If you're right AND the effective rate tracks @ target, you win 41 @ settlement. If you're wrong, you lose 9 (again assuming the rate tracks correctly). So that's 41/9 = 4.56:1...

Sell October FF. Electronic: ZQV7. If you're right, a good guess is you'll make $1200/contract.

Two comments: we have a new guy eager to distinguish himself from his predecessor. And is 25 bps a surprise now?