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A run back up from 97 to 105 is not inconceivable. The selling has taken it to some decent support levels. But don't expect it to fly higher. That would be a great entry to the short side.

Haha.

I just go straight to the dollar index futures, IDX. I don't like to try to pick a single currency cross. I think the dollar will fall among all the major pairs more or less netting to a loss over time. I'm short from 87 on IDXM9.

This is really a good policy. Mosquitos are horrible. If you've ever been to southern mexico, or costa rica, or any other tropic region you would know what it's like to get eaten alive. I once had mosquitos in my house in Las Vegas, from some flowers that were sent. They took 6 months to fully...

It doesn't look like China stopped buying treasuries in Jan or Feb to me. <a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt">Tic data up to Feb</a> Dec 08: 727.4 Jan 09: 739.6 Feb 09: 744.2

I was long the 30 year in early November through December because the market was anticipating quantitative easing. That trade is over, and now it is a bearish scenario.

I agree that the fed can prop up treasuries, but it will be at the expense of the dollar. They are trying to dam the colorado river with a twig. The flow will eventually find a path no matter what they do. A good trade is short the dollar, short treasuries. Heads, I win, tails you lose trade.

The bubble in treasuries has already popped. We are going to see treasury yields at very high levels by the end of this year. Watch out.

This is a great article. It lays out the different schools of thought about the GD. I wish they would go into the theories about solutions though. One thesis that I'm starting to cling to is that the interventionist policies of the 1930's actually made the contraction worse by taking capital...

That's an ugly chart if the budget is a leading indicator for inflation. Which I agree is the case.

He keeps talking about an economic war. Who is the war with? If he knows something, he should be much more clear.

You could be right. As we see World banks inflating the Chinese consumer, while contracting all american lending, the trade deficit is narrowing and china's surplus is collapsing. Is their intent a large intervention in the world trade system to offset the global imbalances? The problem with...

Fuck off asshole. I'm in no mood for a flame war.

Go long QMF0 and short USO.

It's done, the goal was reached. Thanks to anyone who checked it out. This was not spam, it was to help support the trading community. I have used hundreds of services over the years, and if I can help people filter through to the good stuff, I will. If you read through all my posts, you will...

SIPC

Did you see the yields on US treasuries skyrocket. The fed has realized that the dollar is F'd. They are letting rates rise to defend the dollar, but even with the surge this week, the dollar only held its own, it didn't rise. Stay short. Don't listen to the creton heads.

The massive selloff in the long end treasuries is not due to the change in failure to deliver rules, or the massive amount to be financed in the coming months. Think about the date. We are 15 days out from last year's tax filing deadline. This is about how long the treasury needed to calculate...

Fari Hamzei is a great guy, I used to subscribe to his site, it had a lot of good info for analyzing volatility and trading derivatives in general. He is trying to get 2,000 twitter subscribers by the end of today. He currently has 1,939, so It won't take much to reach the goal. It's of no...

I would imagine in "Victorville" that others are thinking about burning down their own houses just because they had the realization that they bought an overpriced house in a shithole town.