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True, but it's also the case that the only main scenario that keeps JGBs up is continuation of the status quo. I think almost all other scenario involve JGBs falling a little to a lot. Not sure same can be said for JPY?

Fwiw I noted a couple of things recently: - Major Japanese banks sold a lot of JGB through to Aug this year http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/23/japan-economy-boj-banking-idUSL3N0ID22X20131023 - Nomura believes that there is a coming wave of Japanese companies seeking non-Japanese...

Why more juice in JPY than in JGBs? If JPY is to weaken substantially...won't it need some real-money sellers behind it? What are they going to sell? Don't really have my own opinion on this yet...just trying to think things through.

hi - thanks for sharing. this is quite interesting. if it's not giving too much away how do you achieve the orthogonality of your patterns on each tier? how do you handle conflicting patterns between tiers (ie if tier 1 says long, tier 2 says nothing, tier 3 says short and tier 4 says X)...

To no-one in particular but many in general: <rant>one of the saddest things about the internet is the way it gives morons the opportunity to produce and publish fact-free and intelligence-deficient bits of text as if they were actually taking part in a reasoned debate (just because many...

DT-waw, Nice feast of sarcasm there. Just a teeny bit too much salt for my taste but not bad, not bad... :D

Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor. Just keep it going along those lines. The rest of the world is watching, popcorn in hand...:D

The point is their traders don't care what commentary their analysts give out to clients etc. All that is just fluff - we all know this right? - their traders probably only half a 1/10th of an eye on what their analysts say anyway! Their traders are seeing what their research analysts don't -...

Pity then that he isn't an Arab - check the Arab population of Iran on the CIA world fact book (3% of Iranians are Arabs). If you don't know this then you have no idea what drives some of the regional politics in the middle east.

I've said before elsewhere I went back to read magazines from 1987 to see what the actual sentiment looked like. I read the Investors Chronicle (which is the nearest thing the UK has to Barrons). All during the summer/autumn of that year sentiment in the tone and subject matter of many if not...

New record volume on the Bund today(?) 3m+ contracts so far....

Looks very like longs puking big time=> should provide room for a bounce...

So, how many hours/minutes until CNBC et al start asking "analysts" whether we are now officially in a "correction". Perhaps some bright spark will suggest that we are not in a "correction" officially until we breach last week's low. A crash being anything greater, obviously... :D Q1

sorry forgot the most important one for the future: EqtTrdr becomes bearish = bullish :D

tidal wave wipes out US east coast = bullish Tokyo destroyed in earthquake = bullish global avian flu pandemic = bullish terrorists nuke London = bullish collapse of world ecosystem brings global food shortage = bullish its all bullish until someone gets hurt... :D Q1

Bonds are really just following EuroBunds and Gilts in their 2 month puke-fest. Bunds have backed up about 60bps (to 4.45%) in about 10 weeks - they turned on the late March Fed meeting. Gilts are a similar picture (to 5.30%). Futures are pricing in 3(!) more rate rises from the ECB (to...

but how many people bid several times what they really wanted in order to get the allocation? of the 140m bid I doubt half that is actually even nearly real.

According to the prospectus 46% of revenue is TRADING GAINS and 10% from COMMISSIONS (in 2006). So with IB you're not really buying a broker, you're buying a trading company that has a brokerage branch. Q1

krishiyer, i think you mean short the future and short the USD pair - otherwise its a "texas hedge" :D no its negative carry. if you trade cash market fx then your interest earned v interest paid will ALWAYS be worse than the future. why? because the futures exchanges have...

if Elitetrader had a "hall-of-fame" thread list I'd vote for this.... fresh fresh fresh tulips! Q1