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I read daily candles/bars. They capture the full session in a single bar, in my mind I often split the session in two parts, first and last of the day. I like to visualize it all like I'm watching a football game with two teams playing off against each other, trying to advance on the field.

Anyone else swing trading by reading pure price action? pure interpretation of weakness and strength in OHLC/candles in the larger context. Minimalist approach with no indicators, oscillators, trend lines, etc. Using only horizontal support and resistance areas as an addition to pure price.

Hi, Anyone have to know where to find a Monte-carlo probability calculator code in Go? I'm looking for something like this: https://www.optionstrategist.com/calculators/probability Guess this is simple Monte-carlo using random input? I need the code for a risk management tool I would like to...

I would say it depends on much capital they will allocate to your book. If it's sub $10m I would opting for something higher than 10% of net returns above high water mark. You do the math, how much capital will you manage, what is the size of your expected return in pct and $. What will your...

Depends on trading style and time frame. Need to fit risk per trade to your particular style. For a guy trading in and out multiple times a day 1% is to big, but for a swing trader trading 5-10 days out it's to small. And for a position trader running multiple week/month trades he may need even...

Wrong. Traders need to know the direction of the market in higher level time frames. Trend filters in multiple time frames improve your success rate, especially if you are a swing trader or position trader.

Did well, Long 100% in T-bills since mid august. Used the elevated volatility to sell some Cash-Secured puts in SPY today. Now I will just sit and wait until my trading model give me a signal to enter the market. I do not need to trade the market every day, week or even month, that is for you...

Isn't TA anything that uses historical price data? it's a umbrella term that covers a lot of different areas. Every thing from crazy stuff like astrology to statistical quant models. Subjective methods like chart patterns to objective methods like heavy statistical number crunching using quant...

If one got a good method/model for directional trading, one can take advantage of the very good risk vs reward of buying options instead of buying index futures or index ETF's. Buying options if part of almost every multi-leg options strategy. Also for portfolio hedging. It's not black or white.

Yes, you can make a living by outright buying options. But you need a method/model to predict direction as plainly buying options is a directional trade.

HF/CTA's are able to intelligently use leverage. ones strategy got a good relation between annual return and annual draw down one can by use to additional leverage to boost returns within ones given risk mandate. Example if current performance is 10% returns for 3% risk, double the leverage and...

Annual returns are irrelevant. What risk was taken to generate that return? If you are able to generate 9.5% for 1% to 2% annualized max draw down that is excellent returns.

Yeah, that is true. "absolute safety" is a whole different thing. T-bonds, T-notes, T-bills, TIPS, etc. should not be seen as safe either as the US Government could theoretically go bankrupt.

Statistically safe :D They are strikes -20% below current market. If the S&P 500 where to drop more than 20% during 3 months I will take delivery of the shares and sell them back at break-even on bounce.

T-bills paying 2% together with interleaved Cash-Secured-Puts in SPY paying 3%. So I earn 5% annually for idle cash holdings. In the past I've used GSY and MINT, which are short term corp. bonds ETF's paying monthly dividends. But today with T-bills paying around 2% there is not much of a...

I use this thread to track the trading progress of forward testing two experimental systematic models for swing trading SPY out of the money options. Forward testing will be with real money, $250 respectively $500. The first system have lower activity but higher returns, let's name is...

Yes! here is my holy grail for intraday: Take a dice and throw it, if a even number comes up you go long ES, if odd number stay out and try again in 30 minutes. Set a fixed profit exit at 0.30% and fixed stop loss at 0.10% Try it, it will work!

Yes you do, because paying cash for a house is stupid. Not optimal use for ones capital. Especially true as a trader. One solution to the getting-a-mortgage problem is to get the loan while you have full time employment. After you got your mortgage you are free to leave your work and pursue...

Isn't this close to what these CFD, FX, Spread Betting "brokers" do. Taking the other side of their clients trades, so they can keep it all :D Entertaining post btw

Numbers man.. numbers.. I don’t need charts, I don’t need news, I don’t need quarterly reports.. I only need numbers.. - hard work, evenings, weekends - blood, sweat and tears - understand market mechanics - search for stuff that show promise and evaluate it - statistical probability analysis...