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i like this (in fact I have a similar relative value position on). the bit i do not understand is why you want to waste cash on these puts (at around 70% vol). it is either "too big to fail" or it is not "too big to fail"- take your pick...

in the longer term not really...and that's not how you manage asset allocation in any case. i said i need to have some assets in europe - and as far as i know US is not part of that. btw i hate USD. almost all the fundamentals are as bad and in some cases worse than that of EUR. The US has...

thanks for the sympathy. :) indeed. it is truly amazing considering that by any trade measures NOK is the most undervalued currency in the world (maybe except SGD/BND), it exports mostly to EUR countries, is the richest country in the civilized world, has one of the highest quality of living...

I agree with today's under-performance - but that just made the level more ridiculous. I have it as a long term hedge against EUR problems (as I have to keep quite a bit of assets in Europe) and it is not working exactly as expected - basically 7.80 all the time like HKD...even with the help...

isn't it amazing, that a currency (NOK) that has no problems whatsoever (debts/deficits/etc) and which would in case of a demise of EUR basically link to the strong northern club currencies (and is therefore a natural hedge against this occurring) is under-performing even EUR? (not even...

yeah - and leaving the family behind...

well it is not that textbook easy... the biggest net exporter in the world based on common currency is eurozone (and the countries closely linked to it) . I don't see why the global imbalances have to be made even worse (by devaluing EUR) to solve europe's problems. It is like saying China is...

explain why cheaper EUR is essential to solve Europe's problems. you mention this mantra all the time but it makes absolutely none macro sense...

that's a completely wrong interpretation of Europe's problems...

if I wanted to give the source (or could for that matter) I would have done it in my previous post... things are changing quickly in this political space - but the bigger ideas take few days to tune up before they get published. i may be wrong here but the market says differently - for the...

i think NFP number is close to irrelevant and if you think the rally in the past few days is because of good expectations of NFP number then you are trading blind. the market wants to rally - and that's how it is going to interpret any number (of course unless it is hugely off) it is all...

you mean selling USD denominated assets for EUR cash?

why a weaker currency? trade balance for Europe can't be much more positive already...

why is AUD and CAD on the same boat vis-a-vis USD in Armagedon scenario? the commodity argument never made much sense to me....

who cares...

So true. p.s. and mentioning Tilson in this thread is just polluting it.

it looks like he reads this thread...:)

i may have been misunderstood here. actually i think the banks are more than well capitalized and TARP2 will never be needed. i just thought about it as the worst case scenario. so you can buy BAC senior bonds for 70%-80% - think about the risk reward under plausible scenarios. doesn't it...

:) so what do you suggest would happen? all Americans would lose their money? LOL

FDIC is broke. it would have to be solved by new funding from Congress and/or Fed. but even republicans claim that we should have bailed out LEH - so when push comes to shove the money would be there. of course it is not a riskless trade - it just looks attractive. and if it does not work...