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  1. Real Money

    Goldman's Head Of Research Crucifies "AI Bubble":Not One Transformative Application Has Been Found

    AI can definitely revolutionize online gaming. The current AI in video games is terrible. The industry has been using workarounds like zombies and insect hordes or aliens and so on. Next gen artificial intelligence could create billion dollar gaming franchises in FPS, MMORPG, and others.
  2. Real Money

    Treasury bonds after inflation data

    Just my take, and I'm out of touch cuz I'm currently fully invested (bills and RE). I'm guessing the banks/funds etc. are accumulating the physical, either speculatively for their client base, or for other reasons. So the market was bid up and was kept bid into the print to press shorts and...
  3. Real Money

    Exploring the Potential of Synthetic Data in Trading Strategies

    In real market data, the price variance (vol) is always changing. In statistics, a random variable is generated using probability density functions and the probability integral transform. The problem with this approach to data generation is that, with these models, variance is a simple...
  4. Real Money

    Brokers offering CME S&P Select Sector futures

    Seems like you just have to trade the ETFs.
  5. Real Money

    Index Spread Traders

    From what I understand about native spreads listed on CME, the problem is of priority in the matching engine. Imagine if there was a native index spread market on GLOBEX. That would mean (theorizing) that FCMs would have the ability to post/cancel limit orders (in a queue) by specifying a...
  6. Real Money

    Index Spread Traders

    This is an overview of these micro spreads I talked about in a different thread.
  7. Real Money

    Index Spread Traders

    First of all, a Micro's spread like this isn't leverageable from a fees perspective. You pay more in exchange/commision on micros as a percentage of notional exposure. The groups making and taking liquidity (short time frames) are definitely co-located/exchange members/market makers etc...
  8. Real Money

    How can **practically** a retail trader implement a FX carry trade on IBKR?

    What's the point if your yield is less than the t-bill rate? Why bother?
  9. Real Money

    is there a forum aimed at scalpng rather than "one stop shop"?

    Just looking at mega cap model volatility (inverse), it was definitely relevant last week. Looks more like ES is trading around the vol moves and not the other way around.
  10. Real Money

    is there a forum aimed at scalpng rather than "one stop shop"?

    For greeks, yea you're right, but mega cap implied is always involved. With synthetics, just a basic understanding of replication is what I meant -- that options are a spanning set. I was thinking more like synthetic futures, i.e. index spreads, or pricing a synthetic index in the cash market...
  11. Real Money

    is there a forum aimed at scalpng rather than "one stop shop"?

    Yea. I'm trying to speak to the op's point about forum goers not being able to talk markets relevant to scalping the NY open (assuming futures) because it's true. I listed off the reasons why, quite verbosely, to demonstrate how big the holes in most people's knowledge are. If most don't even...
  12. Real Money

    how far ahead of us is institutional trading?

    It's too broad a question. For example, in hydrocarbons, the CL intras and inters (crack spread, for example) are a source of trading by institutional versus retail players. From their side, these are being used to hedge OTC energy deals and commercial accounts, but the counter-parties will...
  13. Real Money

    how far ahead of us is institutional trading?

    They are selling execution OTC, so they are constantly involved, especially with regard to VWAP. They make markets in everything imaginable and actively manage all the necessary hedges. They are using tons of stuff that retail trading solutions just aren't competitive in. For example, many...
  14. Real Money

    is there a forum aimed at scalpng rather than "one stop shop"?

    The bottom line is you need to be an expert on short time-frames. Need to know REG-T, TIMS, SPAN, rates, vol, greeks, about outsourced/third-party execution and guaranteed VWAP, Fed policy, reports, earnings and release data, brokerage software, the players involved (FCM-BD-SD), co-location...
  15. Real Money

    How does day trading handle superficial loss rules?

    You can't report the pnl as long term capital gains. It must be reported as ordinary income, unless you're trading through a structure. This is why a lot of retail spec is done through futures and options, since they have a special 1256 designation.
  16. Real Money

    Intraday Option Price Modeling

    Can you use Bjerksund-Stensland?
  17. Real Money

    Ending the Deficit

    The long term plan seems to be deficit spending into hot inflation prints (rel to 2%) with a faux hawkish Fed, and in so doing, the increased tax receipts will swell up enough so that the deficit is relatively small when compared to revenue/total spend. Inflating the debt away, would more aptly...
  18. Real Money

    Datek --> Ameritrade --> Eliminated by Schwab.

    The whale swallows the little fish.
  19. Real Money

    Interesting sources for news, commentary and education

    https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
  20. Real Money

    IBKR the best imo.

    Can you even use pinescript with it? P.S. Schwab charting better, but I still like regular TWS charts.
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