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Rant on... The problem is the western world had rates too low for too long and now have asset markets pumped up to eye-watering levels... If they actually raised rates to restrictive levels (positive real rates) the stock, bond, and housing markets will FREEZE UP or get repriced very far away...

Here's a picture (NQ chart in white with index points on left axis) The cash value of the spread is on the right axis (differential of contract notional amounts). They trade in sync because NDX is free-float cap weighted and DJX is price weighted. The spread gives exposure to BETA risk, i.e...

Seeing some next-level manipulation in the DOW lately... Got my fingers burned this week. The rotation into value is making things interesting. Fed hikes from here are hard to figure. Institutions are spread between high yield, IG, and value/dividend names... Wish I had better intel on...

You can trade micro index and yield futures instead of E-mini index and CBOT rate futures. Can also trade the mini VIX contract or spreads. You can get ultra low-risk trading with long/short futures spreads. These are called (inter-market) index spreads. You can also trade them on the...

So, the put OI on ES ballooned going into the close on Friday. (vol crush) Buying far OTM puts with very near expiry is a bet on index vol right? Is this just a hedge for index buying? Is it banks laying risk off on GLOBEX? EWV2 is the Monday Expiry and E1BX2 is Nov. 1 -- a day before the...

A lotta hedging in this market. With VIX so high, moves like this are no surprise. Big moves on USD and bonds today.

Did this today. I was holding some TLT going into the open from yesterdays session. Instead of getting the entire move higher in bonds, I bought some lots of yield futures near the open. Still getting used to trading treasury ETFs. Previous losses affecting my psychology.

Nobody ever went broke taking a profit.

"Portfolio Margin" is the answer. Seems like every broker has different requirements for it. There are likely income, net worth, and experience requirements. But, they let you put size on in the cash market, which is pretty cool.

Is it finally time to buy this index? This selloff been on my radar for a minute.

This contract is worth $1000 times the quote right? The CME site says its "1000 index points" re BrokerTec, I just haven't traded it yet. Looking to use this to hedge positions in TLT.

Yield Curve Index VWAP Index Vol Constituent Vol Index Differentials (spread market) But really, it's about liquidity. If a large move has occurred, or is setting up, that's where you will see many traps, backfill, reversals, spikes, counter trend moves, etc. You need to know who is trapped...

The problem is how this wealth was created. The whole QE infinity, balance sheet, MBS ponzi is falling apart, and rapidly. The vast majority is paper wealth and is very quickly becoming illiquid -- stocks, bonds, corp debt, RE etc. This is why Yellen and co are so desperate to start a new...

Was looking at TradeStation last time as a viable addition to TWS and TOS. It's impressive, and cheap, and they had Trading Technologies help build it or something...check it out. But, I'm in the US, so still getting by with TOS and TWS charts. I also use Excel real-time charts with a VBA...

It's not just the Fed. Kuroda's yield curve control, the RBA pumping AUS RE with ultra low rates, even with >50% of mortgages on floating... Canada's central bank and Trudeau pumping RE in Toronto to some pretty ridiculous levels. Honestly, it's criminal that the Fed didn't change policy...

Closing auction is part of it. Some derivatives mark to the close as well.

The vol is originating from the rates market. Bitcoin/crypto is relatively much smaller, so it will be affected, but not nearly as much as larger and more liquid markets - equity derivatives, FX, and corporate debt, etc. Can't hedge trillions in risk with bitcoin when it's orders of magnitude...

You hedge out some of the risks. Can do it using convex payoff instruments, tracking the value of a portfolio or basket, trading a synthetic future or index, or making sure you're not on the wrong side of the rates market.

Yea. The cash value is always $1000 times the quote on ECBOT. The math behind that is complicated. I'm starting to think this is the thing to be trading. Everything else is repricing whenever it moves anyway. I want to know how to trade the actual ICS 'native' spread on IBKR.

TUT = (2000 * ZTZ22) - (1000 * ZNZ22) gives you the cash value, so you just make a 'virtual security' and chart the midpoint.