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  1. Statistical Trader

    Best place to see performance of various sectors of stocks?

    Why not just look at the sectors yourself? A very easy starting point would be the SPDR sector ETFs: https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/ There are also lots of graphics like these floating around: https://pulliamfamilyoffice.com/current-market-series-part-iii-sector-rotation-strategy/ EDIT...
  2. Statistical Trader

    Some maths required...

    I looked for a degree in a few Pez dispensers but I quickly gave up on that approach!! o_O lol It's true. I do some statistical consulting and it's fascinating how many different areas can benefit from properly conducted statistical analysis and/or modelling. It's also scary how often...
  3. Statistical Trader

    Some maths required...

    I'm glad you feel you've solved your problem well enough for your purposes. You say "case closed" and so I'll respect that and try not to say too much more. I would, if I may, just like to say that I am intrigued by your assertion that you only have one data point (or would like a solution...
  4. Statistical Trader

    Some maths required...

    LOL :) I shared that "PS" because OP reminds me just a little bit of myself many, many years ago and I thought he (and/or someone else reading this thread) might enjoy following a similar path if they find themselves intrigued by the power of statistics to solve difficult problems (and/or at...
  5. Statistical Trader

    Some maths required...

    I started off typing a very lengthy reply, but I think it's overkill here and I'm going to substantially cut it back. The bottom line is that you need to be very clear on what you're trying to accomplish; I really doubt you have the right formulas for whatever it is you're trying to do. Yes...
  6. Statistical Trader

    Women's trade journal

    LOL. Hilarious. Thanks!
  7. Statistical Trader

    Women's trade journal

    Seriously?! LOL. I was off and on ET at that time... how did everyone find out Xela wasn't actually a woman??
  8. Statistical Trader

    A quick move in my Roth IRA...WEAT

    With respect, you're sitting just below breakeven (ie: small unrealized loss) on the covered call position you already wrote on March 11, 2022 [WEAT @ $9.89, premium @ $1.65 for Oct22 $12 strike]. The premium you collected doesn't quite cover the unrealized loss on WEAT [now @$7.91] so overall...
  9. Statistical Trader

    Yield Curve Inversion!?

    Yield inversion is a component of one of my long term models. Admittedly, it is a small component and other components are more important, but it does contribute something to the model. Here's a quick visualization for those who are interested...
  10. Statistical Trader

    Uganda : ,,Deposits Of Gold Worth $12 Trillion"

    I wasn't saying that you were saying what I was saying! I was saying that what you were saying is CONSISTENT with what I was saying... Two different paths to get to the same conclusion. If you watch the video and then do the math, the Ugandan president is NOT claiming to have found 320 M tons...
  11. Statistical Trader

    Uganda : ,,Deposits Of Gold Worth $12 Trillion"

    I'm pretty sure @Nobert WASN'T serious! Nobert is saying the neonazi claim was a false claim to provide justification for the invasion of Ukraine. If they were to invade Uganda for the gold, he's saying they might as well use the same excuse!!
  12. Statistical Trader

    Uganda : ,,Deposits Of Gold Worth $12 Trillion"

    This sounds right. @Snuskpelle 320,000,000 tons x ~55,000,000 $/ton = $17,600,000,000,000,000 ($18 QUADRILLION) which is not the value claimed. So, he can't mean 320,000,000 tons of pure gold and must mean 320,000,000 tons of material prior to refining. Dividing 18 quadrillion by ~1000 gives...
  13. Statistical Trader

    Historical Implied Volatility Data - Market Chameleon?

    Thanks @ET180. Just to be clear, you pull *historical* IV through the IB API or just current IV? In other words, suppose I want daily data of what the IV *was* on the past for a specific equity over the past X years... is that the sort of data you're pulling? I don't care about the IV on...
  14. Statistical Trader

    Historical Implied Volatility Data - Market Chameleon?

    I'm looking for some historical implied volatility data (not to be confused with historical volatility data) and found Market Chameleon. Does anyone have knowledge of the data quality of Market Chameleon data, the implied vol data in particular? I'm open to other suggestions for good...
  15. Statistical Trader

    Does anyone actually understand why stock price moves?

    Big volume doesn't necessarily mean big moves. Small volume doesn't necessarily mean small moves. Right now we have 0.6600 bid and 0.7084 ask on AYTU after hours. Someone enters a small MKT buy order. They buy at 0.7084. Someone else enters a small MKT sell order. They sell at 0.6600. I...
  16. Statistical Trader

    Does anyone actually understand why stock price moves?

    Huh? There are lots of reasons why prices move. Regarding AYTU, I don't see any big moves today after hours. You have a 4.84 cent bid/ask spread, thin volume, virtually no trades. What's your question again? What big price movement?
  17. Statistical Trader

    Is there ANYPLACE safe to put your money these days?

    It's a little unclear whether you are looking to invest / long term trade (ie: assume risk in exchange for potential profits) or just protect capital as best as possible with minimal risk. If you are good at short term trading, there are obviously opportunities there. If you have an opinion on...
  18. Statistical Trader

    Uncommon and Interesting psychological Issue

    @cruisecontrol answered your question: it's a business decision. For whatever reasons (and we can easily speculate) it's worth it to them in some cases and not in others. Is it fair? No, but many things in life aren't fair. You feel like complaining? I get it. I might too. After you get...
  19. Statistical Trader

    AMC 90 calls 6 cents bid

    You're >99% probably right (minus the hyperbole) that it will never print. That's a lot of margin to pick up pennies, though, and I don't leverage short options period. My real question is did enough people actually sell the 90 based on Jack's advice to briefly push the bid on the 90 below the...
  20. Statistical Trader

    Here's an 84% Winning Strategy You Can Use !

    Nice ad for your software. At 12:10, you state "84% of the time the stock closed below the high in the first 30 minutes." Nobody can profit from this information by going short at the high in the first 30 minutes because at any moment during the first 30 minutes, we never know if we're...
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