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This is Gambler's Fallacy. It can clearly be proven that the results of each coin flip is indepdenent. Any observation showing "reversion to the mean" over the long-term is just standard probability distribution. Do not confuse mean reversion as it applies to trading to gamblers fallacy...

Talk about wild speculation! Why would the government suppress trading for the election even if they could? If anything, such a move would cause greater volatility when markets re-open. The greater volatility would result in much greater risk of downside move.

Disagree 100%. Research on trend-following methods clearly show a higher % chance of losing trade following larger winning trade; and higher % chance of winning trade after series of losing trades. Also, read some of P2's threads. His entire trading method is based on increasing position...

What you are doing here is creating a system to trade your system. Specifically in your case you are creating a position sizing system to manage your system. (Some "systems of systems" completely discard a signal after X winners or losers.) It is a valid concept, but you need to make sure...

When you have lots of money, joy, happiness, spirtuality, and hot chics are much easier to find. Don't let the philosophers try to convince you otherwise. You can have your cake and eat it too. It feels especially good when you started with nothing and earned it using intellect. That's...

The more money you have, the more important capital preservation becomes. The reason comparison to S&P is often reference is because of opportunity cost analysis. Also, the S&P serves as a benchmark for mutual funds.

Depends on what it cost to learn, and the utility of that new found idea. For example, I know someone who spent $5000 to attend a trading seminar based on the marketing material and public reputation of market guru he met at the NY trading expo. He left the seminar feeling 99% of it was...

I've used IB and quotes.com on a 56k modem a few times when I've been on the road. It is definitely tradeable but of course not ideal. The difficulty is that some hotels with "business centers" don't always open when the markets open (Pacific time zone). I've tipped the manager on duty $100...

Ah, you make a great Republican! I am one too, but I am surrounded by liberals. I love capitalism, and I love trading. And I love secular pleasures. It motivates me constantly to improve my trading! :)

Yes, it is. Guilt is one of the major tenets of liberalism. Regarding TV ads, the "Save the Children" ads and similar on the surface look like they draw on your compassion and kindness, but the primary motivator is guilt. They allude to every day secular things that we take for granted...

I don't think this proves that Sharpe ratio (or any other measurement of risk for that matter) is useless or is discredited. Only that past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

I do indeed donate both time and money to many worthy causes. But I do try to keep in perspective personal satisfaction/luxuries vs. philanthropy. If the liberals would have their way, we would all be giving away all of our disposable income to save the world. I am constantly made to feel...

Traders looking at performance of specific trading method should look at Sharpe. Investors looking at portfolio selection should look at Treynor. In other words, if you care about all risk (not just systematic risk), and you are comparing one comprehensive strategy to another, Sharpe's...

Money is awesome! Don't fool yourself with philosophical discussions otherwise. Yes, happiness, love, spirituality are all also important- but you can absolutely have all these things in addition to money! In my youth I used to tell myself that all I needed to survive was rice and soy...

No need to reinvent the wheel. http://www.smartquant.com/software.html

You need a methodology edge. An approach or system that provides a positive expectancy. You need a psychological edge. The ability to trade your methodology and discipline to stick to your trading plan. This can be taught. You also need proper capitalization, leverage depending on...

Are they on or off floor?

ArchAngel, You are quite right on relative sin of Martha's insider trading vs. others. What I meant to say is that there is a hidden rule amongst executives who share "wink winks" and "nod nods" that if you're going to profit from insider trading, don't trade any more or less than you...

Cool, just wanted to double check. sometimes in backtesting you can get crazy results if you're not careful. You may also want to try a filter that eliminates all bars that close greater than X, where X can be something arbitrary at first and then work in some volatility measure (like 2 *...

SP is pit-traded. ES is electronically traded on Globex2, which means you can trade it after hours and evenings (except Fri & Sat) though liquidity is thin until Europe opens. SP = $250 per point. ES is 1/5 the size of SP to make it more tradable for the masses, so 1.00 point = $50...