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Yes it's the 50 day WMA so it adjusts everyday using the new closing price, that's what I refer to as the "mean" and exit 1 tick above that.

Might have something to do with this;

Yes you may be right, my strategy is always early to enter on the divergence to be able to always catch the convergence back to the mean, so most of my trades will go against me before coming back.

Opened two new trades today, decided to make some contrarian plays as I think this reaction from the new covid variant concern is a bit overdone, so entered buy orders for both $RCL and $DAL which were filled on the open, both stocks already met all my technical requirements yesterday for a...

Thank you for your support, will do my best to stay consistent and keep this thread updated. Looks like stocks are going to be on sale for Black Friday too, Russell futures were just down 5% in overnight trading, market is nervous about the new covid variant out of South Africa.

Fair enough, again up to each individual tastes if you don't mind sitting in cash for a long time, and yes I've tested inverse ETFs but there's no free lunch that I've discovered to completely wipe out equity volatility risk. There are some other filters you could try like when front month VIX...

Yes you may be right although I haven't tested that, generally speaking low beta stocks have relatively more stable businesses and less downside risk than high beta stocks and with my strategy it's more about trying to avoid the big losses as the small wins will always trickle in.

Comparing these back tests to buy and hold is not the right comparative measure to use here as most of the time there's no open trades in each instrument, these are individual stock back tests not portfolio level back tests, and I'm running the strategy with many trades always open on a...

Thank you for your support.

Hey tiddlywinks check the last post I made, it shows backtests from 2008 until now.

Generally speaking; High frequency trading: trades last seconds or less Scalping: seconds to minutes Day Trading: minutes to an hour Swing Trading: several days to several weeks Position Trading: several weeks to several months Investing: Positions held longer than a year

I didn't cherry pick, I've ran backtests for the same stocks on the first page from 2008 until now and they all recovered fine after 2008 and covid with most ending the 2008 year with a profit, $FB wasn't around then so I tested $AAPL instead and $BAC didn't show results for some reason so I...

Nice one, the only thing with this if the market goes into a prolonged bear market you could be in cash for several years or longer most of the time with plenty of false starts, for example the Nikkei for most of the early 90s spent most of the time under the 200ma.

Whatever you're doing or the filter you've found sounds great being able to avoid market drawdowns and still participate in the upside, I have yet to find such a strategy. The only similar thing that comes to mind is a index filter for a trend following strategy, for example when $SPX is under...

Thank you for your support, much appreciated. Yes you're right about the risk/reward profile differing from yours and there's nothing wrong with your approach I actually run trend following strategies too and find that you have to pay for that convexity with drawdowns and long periods of...

With TradingView it's not currently possible to do back testing at the portfolio level and even if it were it would be near impossible to back test the way I'm trading in this journal, what I've referred to is individual back tests on the stock level to show the system does generate profits over...

Nice to hear, I haven't traded my strategy on the E-Minis as my indicators only generate approximately 2-5 entry signals per year on the daily chart of any instrument hence why I trade a universe of liquid stocks to look for the best opportunities.

Haha looks like we've got a detective here and you really spent the time to find a special Youtube video for me?? thanks for that.. and since we're splitting hairs the wording on my site reads "you can easily add our indicators to any chart of any instrument" meaning it doesn't just work on...

Thanks, and yes you may be right and I'm currently trying to back test more of my filters, but it's easier said than done as I'm looking at quite a few things before taking a trade. Plus I think I can improve results with my discretion, for example a very high valuation stock that's been...

Yes there were losses during the covid bear market like all long-only stock strategies, however the way I'm trading in this journal using discretion I can't back test that and my strategy performance will always have strong short term correlation to the overall market, but the idea is to beat...