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I wonder what Russian, French, and British investors who bought and held shares on the St.Petersburg exchange before the commies took over are thinking in their graves. Hint: The index shot up +600% from 1888 to 1917, then went to 0.

Sometimes one has to wonder how accurate these analysts are at predicting market movements. I sure remember Tom Lee, back in December 2017 he was calling for BTC to go to $200K. The rest is history....

There is no such thing as a negative edge. If someone is consistently wrong on the market AND losing money, just tell him to flip his trades! There is a lot of money to be made on the opposite side.

I have no regrets about being clueless on an useless metric. :D

Look I get what you are saying, we have a -10% to -20% correction where the weak hands are shaken off the train, then the rally continues, yadda yadda yadda. But there is an important caveat: Not every -10% to -20% drawdown is the same. Take a look at the implied recession probability...

Here is chart I made of SPX earnings yield versus risk free rate (U.S. 10 YR). I know this has been shilled a lot in academia (Damodaran anyone?), but the correlation between them for a further market rally is poor. Look at the 90s! Rf rate stayed consistently above S and P EY for an entire...

Thanks for the analysis. Buybacks are definitely a large part of the story, and I should elaborate more, companies ALWAYS buys back the most of their stock at the highest valuation levels. The amount of bids at recession lows (when shares are cheapest), are far less than what they are at the...

Ouch, that was quite the burn. :banghead: Anyways the direction over the next decade is UP, there is no doubt about it. The problem is the market has gotten A LOT risky over the past year. We are back at 2890, but at the same time last year, the probabilities of a recession was 5%, now it's...

fine. My next thread is going be about a stock chart from my TI-84? OK? :p

:D

I posted a snapshot of smart money flow from my Bloomberg Terminal here Edit, courtesy of Dozu888, dumb money isn't buying either, their positioning can be found here (go to SPX500)

You are over analyzing it.

I think the reason why this fib fellow is getting bashed so intensely is because the amount of money he claims to be trading. I told him on another thread maybe actually posting the trades in his account would lead to folks easing their skepticism. Idk, I give everyone the benefit of the doubt...

Maverick 74 ET is a perfect guy to talk to for anyone who is dreaming of getting rich from selling naked options.

fibo, I've seen you thread. Just my two cents, a lot of people are doubting the capital you claim to be trading and not so much your call (even if it went the other way). I give everyone the benefit of the doubt. Maybe starting a new thread and posting your trades would clear your name? Just a...

This is more of a pedantic wording. You know what I'm referring to. In regards to fib's short and hold, FROM WHAT HE CLAIMS, it's basically a martingale type strategy. I think we are due for a significant pull back in the near future, but for the strategy to work it's all a function of how much...

The problem I find with most bears, is they are blindly charging into the hunters who comes into the woods with loaded rifles. The key is to pick off the occasional huntsmen who left his gun in the campground, to take a piss down the stream.

One could be short the market the entire time during these rallies and make money. I've done it before, by constantly trading in and out and fading the daily bearish sell offs, never holding overnight no matter the loss as the vast majority of risk premium comes from that period. I was probably...

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-03/smart-money-club-has-kicked-out-the-optimists In the 1950s and 70s the index was not applicable, AAA bond yielded more than 5% a year and everybody had a larger exposure to bonds than stocks. But now with hundreds of thousands of funds...

I just found out who is buying