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What is it that I'm missing about this thread? I just trying to understand the point. Is it just Bond Bears praying the FED will not cut. Seems like a gamble to me but, I don't trade FF. FED open market ops. have already taken place. Tuesday is just the official announcement. However, not...

Actually, I say it's just the opposite. Crude prices are making all time highs because of a rate cut. Money is cheaper, therefore, the demand for dollar denominated assets are rising. The expected global demand for oil is rising because financing for crude will be cheaper. With that said...

Ok fine, there are 21 primary dealers in that market; all banks. Listen, It's one thing to gamble on a short position in treasuries because you have a "hunch" they won't cut. But, really, this is not the kind of market filled with online daytraders from home. This stuff really does...

Seriously, do you guys even know who's the biggest players in the Fed Funds Futures Market are? I'll give you a hint; IT"S The FED! The fed knows what's happening to the economy via the supply of reserves in the banking system. Which they (The FED) hold. It's the capital markets which...

A 200bps spread is more than significant; and it's the range in which rates trade, that matters. I wasn't implying the current spread is 200bps. However, you said the spread was similar during Katrina and I don't recall that. Which is my point, this wide of spread has forced their [The FED]...

Really! I could be wrong, but, I don't recall a 200bps spread in 91t-bills to Fed Funds EVER!--not during Katrina either. Is there any way you could show this. Thx in Adv.

No sir, I'm speaking more specifically about short term Treasuries. Floods of cash going into short-term treasuries is not good for the economy. Everybody is running scared because they don't trust the paper. But it's the CP which runs the economy. It's the oil in the engine if you will...

In many ways the FED has already lowered rates. The Target Rate; which is the rate used by most news broadcasts and publications, is the rate in which the FED will maintain throughout their open market operation. But the Effective funds rate is the real FF rate, and this changes slightly day to...

What good is it to have an appreciated USD with high unemployment and negative GDP. Rates must be lowered, and this will INCREASE the demand for USD. However, it's not simply about high interest rates causing a downturn in housing. Rates must be lowered because Banks are no longer lending to...

Once you learn *HOW TO TRADE*, you increase your *chance* for success. The fact that it's a game of *chance* evens the playing field. However, the key is to learning HOW TO TRADE. Learning how to trade is much more than knowing how to place an order.

Dudes, they're cutting rates. I don't see why there's even a discussion. Do you guys even look at the Treasury Markets?:confused:

FWIW gentleman, The effective funds rate as of friday's closing was 4.75%. Essentially, member banks have already cut rates. The target rate is merely a formality. The decision has been made.

I think some of your guys are missing a fundamental point about the money market and the Fed. THE FED MUST CUT RATES; if not now, eventually, and sooner rather than later. The Money Market is telling them that the economy is slowing, and at a rapid pace. For the Fed to wait for lagging economic...

Who is Larry Kudlow? His political ties are obvious, and he may still write a column in the New York Post. But, why is he always so bullish?

Of course they don't that's why they haven't responded. It's just more BS from the Left.

Excuse me if I'm interrupting, as I'm not as well spoke as some of you more sophisticated ET'ers. But a trader can easily react to the price action as oppose to predicting it. Think of a baseball player deciding on whether or not to swing on an incoming pitch. The batter doesn't "predict" if...

Some of you bears make a really good case for crash selling. However, as the old saying goes; "SELLERS BE BEWARE".

My thoughts exactly. However, the bounce off the low friday afternoon may suggest a rally anyway. The Fed does nothing with rates, and removes the bias; market buys. The Fed reassures the market that liquidity is NOT a problem; the market buys. It's the summer doldrums, and traders are...

Well said friend

It's obvious by most of the responses, people put very little thought into H&S formations anymore. I know I never did. It was too subjective for me. However, it seems when one attempts to find patterns to trade, they're better suited curb fitting there analysis with the trend. You'd probably...