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  1. Realist

    LME Futures

    The one thing that I can comment on about LME trading is that the electronic trade has been around for sometime but it is not widely available here in the US for retail trading the base metals contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, etc. My understanding is that the contract sizes for...
  2. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    It is still a bit too early to confirm the positive resolution of the "golden triangle" to the upside but so far, it would appear that the resolution is to the upside just as this technical pattern originally suggested. I would still like to see a NY close over 825 basis February as this still...
  3. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    Slowly working out in gold's own unique way, building cause and basing out. I expect the triangle to be resolved to the upside still. Just as platinum did earlier this week...
  4. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    This was my exact reason for trying out the short recently as well as the DX does continue to strengthen. As a result, gold is trading about $5 higher compared to when March DX was trading a full point lower. Since this reasoning did not transpire (and certainly didn't damage gold today with the...
  5. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    Good points Sumo, volumes will continue to drop off until after the New Year. The one thing that I would like to point out though is that during bull trends for both gold and platinum, there tends to be upside moves that occur during the Xmas and New Year holidays. Right now I would rather stay...
  6. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    There is something very positive happening with gold these past few days. Even as the USDX is strengthening and the XEU, XBP and AUD are getting blasted, gold is holding up very nicely right at the 800 area. Gold now appears to be breaking out in all major currencies which was the exact recipe...
  7. Realist

    Gold Straddle help

    Liquidity will increase over time as the OI increases in electronic options. I very rarely use options or spreads in the metals but the setup with gold is looking very good here. I am looking at April and June 900 calls right now if there is any further pullback to the 790 cash area. I am...
  8. Realist

    Gold Straddle help

    not sure if this helps or is just a hindrance but after working the floor in prior years, I have rarely seen many folks make good money on metals calender spreads unless they are able to directly execute orders right down to the floor. Electronic options spreads in the metals complex is still...
  9. Realist

    Platinum - Any Observations?

    Palladium looks fine here if 340 holds. The problem with this metal is that several automakers got burned in 2000 when they tried to switch from platinum to palladium. Not many investors are interested as far as I can tell. I only see max upside in palladium to 500 or so while platinum is just...
  10. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    Right about now my head is about to explode! One minute prices look ready to break but the next support comes in and everything looks great again. It just goes to show that one needs to be nimble and flexible in metals futures. As of right now, GLD regained some critical closing support and many...
  11. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    One of the best forward proxies for the gold price is to simply look at the action in GoldCorp. GG is currently trading down another -2.4% today and there is a very clear technical failure now. Gold is clinging right to its apex right now and I suspect that the upcoming downside too be simply...
  12. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    I also believe this to be the case as well. The gold shares are clearly indicating future weakness in the gold price lies dead ahead. Right now the price is holding up because the manipulative entities such as the bullion banks and pit locals are trying to knock out all potential bearish...
  13. Realist

    Simularity of late 1920's conditions and now

    as each red day advances, the bears continue to tighten their grip one notch at a time. Rallies continue to be sold hard at every opportunity it seems and the technicals are beginning to weigh heavily in my view. There could be some spectacular downside to come here in very quick order I presume...
  14. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    XAU/HUI appears to be pricing in a gold takedown to at least 760-780 imo. I am short from basis 800 on the pin this afternoon with an absolute max target of 720. The base metals are really taking a beating today and the copper and gold shares are being sold heavily. The broader indices appear to...
  15. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    there is already selling just under 800 cash now it appears. It looks as if the boys are trying to print a marginal positive close on COMEX gold today. If the SP gets weaker as the day progresses, then the metals could very well selloff after the floor closes. Platinum continues to look good but...
  16. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    My thought right now is that if 770 cash is penetrated then the door swings wide open for a potential move down to the May'06 high which is the 720-730 region. If there is significant covering to short-comm positions in this area matched with a significant spike low in the XAU, then a likely...
  17. Realist

    Comments on Copper?

    As long as HG is trading under 3 then Cu is subject to further liquidation imo. End of year producer selling is very common as inventories that sit produce tax liabilities. I expect further weakness until 2/1/08 in all of the base metals complex...
  18. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    The commercial buildup of short positions shows that they are unbuckled so far and are just as short as they were at the $846 cash high. The XAU and HUI are now leading gold bullion down just as the same signal occurred in May'06. This lag effect gave futures traders about a 1-2 week timeframe...
  19. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    Crude also appears to be tracing out a very similar downtrend channel which is a very telling pattern of market distribution. It is quite possible that the entire complex could come off in a very dramatic fashion should more hedge funds and small specs decide to offset and exit stage left. A...
  20. Realist

    February Gold (ZGG8)

    The object is not to chase returns but rather to preserve capital until the markets return to a state of bullish posture to deploy funds. I expect the $IRX to go back to 2003 rates over the course of the next couple of years as the Fed will continue to cut rates but only when the markets...
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