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    Backtesting

    I tried Wealth Lab for trading through IB, but there was some memory leak or something and after a couple hours my computer would bog down, the CPU would be pegged, and it ground to a halt. This was on intraday data -- examining every tick -- and was a couple years ago. Maybe a more recent...
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    Backtesting

    I would recommend backtesting newbies try Tradestation. Also, take a look at the book "Trading as a Business" by Charlie Wright if you can find a copy (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000BP5PAE/sr=8-1/qid=1155560022/ref=pd_bbs_1/002-0759510-6400063?ie=UTF8) I currently use Wealth-Lab, but...
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    Backtesting

    Thanks, Samspon. Well said. Only 5 posts, Sam... Although you are a newbie to ET, you sound like an experienced trader. What's your background? What do you trade? Welcome to ET! Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading
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    Backtesting

    It depends on how profitable your system is on average relative to the variability in its profitability. If it was consistently quite profitable even after deducting transaction costs, you probably have a profitable trading strategy and you can proceed to begin trading it. How profitable...
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    Futures question: CTA or incorporate?

    Well, then it depends on if you are going to be profitable or not -- and you have to decide it at the beginning of the year (no, I'm not kidding). Here's the scoop: http://fairmark.com/traders/mtmacc.htm and here: http://www.armencomp.com/tradelog/mark_to_market.shtml And keep in...
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    Backtesting

    30 or more trades is enough to start to do statistics with. More trades = better statistics, though. But be sure these are out of sample trades -- not ones that have been optimized for profitability by adjusting your parameters or indicators. Aaron Schindler Schindler Trading
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    Futures question: CTA or incorporate?

    If you don't have to register as a CTA, don't spend the money. See the NFA website for the exemptions to the registration rules. Incorporate if you want liability protection or to fund a tax advantaged retirement account (assuming you are a US citizen). You'll probably pay higher taxes...
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    Long Oil

    And other people are looking for >$80... Your reason(s) would be more interesting than a number seemingly picked out of thin air.
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    Schindler Fund up 18.4% YTD

    Yeah, but... I gotta tell you, I'm sleeping better with the lower leverage.
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    Schindler Fund up 18.4% YTD

    Thanks, Surf. Contrary to the eurodollar market, you must be expecting a rate increase?
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    Schindler Fund up 18.4% YTD

    Thanks, empee! I'm glad to see my automated strategies are pretty much flat today. There's likely to be a big move after the Fed statement today and I have no idea whether it will be up or down -- in equities, bonds, gold, and the dollar.
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    Schindler Fund up 18.4% YTD

    Thanks, Blackguard! Next time you'll have to say something negative as well -- otherwise it looks like you're on my payroll. :D Aaron Schindler
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    Jim Rogers: Oil will hit $100

    Here's a chart of production by country: http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STATISTICS_DETAIL.asp?Statfile=_worldoilproduction There are countries, like the ones you mentioned, that are producing less. But to be fair, there are also countries are are producing more. Total world production...
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    OPEC July output falls 200,000 bpd

    Thanks, Jay!
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    Crude - WTI vs Brent

    I think it's because of the pipeline problems and Force Majeur in Nigeria. But it is surprising to see... Bonny Light from Nigeria is priced off of Brent, not the other way around. Perhaps, in this time of Bonny Light supply disruption, Brent makes a better or more convenient substitute than...
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    OPEC July output falls 200,000 bpd

    Here's someone else's commentary on Jay's article. Tom Waterman sees the article as mostly bearish... Is Saudi Arabia Acting as the “Swing Producer” Again? July 24, 2006 12:00:AM ET By Tom Waterman New York, NY - OPEC's July crude oil output is expected to fall by 200,000...
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    OPEC July output falls 200,000 bpd

    Inventory report comes out tomorrow (Wednesday)... EIA Inventory Report Expected to Show Mixed Result for Crude and Products July 25, 2006 12:00:AM ET By John Troland Houston, TX - A survey of market analysts suggests that when the Energy Information Administration, the...
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    OPEC July output falls 200,000 bpd

    Here's some more news for the bears... API's 2006 Mid-Year Review- U.S. Refined Product Demand Down July 25, 2006 12:00:AM ET By STAFF Washington, DC - According to the American Petroleum Institute's Monthly Statistical Report for June, record high crude oil prices led to...
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    Significant Reduction in Petroleum / Gasoline Prices, HOW?

    From the committment of traders report, we know that hedge funds and speculators are heavily long crude, heating oil, and gasoline. Perhaps CNBC is just giving its audience what it wants to hear? "Crude is/will be spiking sharply higher" makes for better ratings than "crude drifting in a range".
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