Search results

1280 was just taken out as if it was just another number. I didn't see any resistance at all, at least very short term.

Ah, OK, thanks. I've looked at it before, but never did any kind of systems test against it. I do remember, however, that the inflows into emerging markets were high and accelerating right before the recent big drop in those markets. Have you done any kind of historical testing to see how your...

No objections, we are on the same page. And you answered your own question -- the volatility this week is the (good) reason for excitement.

A lot of people (including me) run fully automated trading systems. By "fully automated", I mean you don't even need to be present. It's relatively easy to implement using the brokerage firms that give you an API (application programming interface) to their system. Essentially, you write (or...

Can you explain how you measure the money flows in and out of the markets?

Well, it's a matter of how you define short term, isn't it? The market action this week may be the "noise" on a monthly chart, but it was more than enough to make a living by fading the "the crash is a sure bet" threads that seem to have congested this board right before a sizable up move. I...

So far today, the action looks like this: The bulls buy aggressively at the open, pushing S&P up 10 points. The bears look at the news and can't believe their eyes. So they short the market big time to "correct" it. The bulls stand aside, and watch with a big grin on their faces. Once the...

You missed one more piece: 4. Inflation is still running high. Today is actually not straight up, but a battle. The bulls buy on the news that the economy is slowing (implying that the FED might stop raising rates). The bears sells on the inflation (implying that the FED will continue to...

You guys are starting to annoy me. Why don't you agree on a bet and the loser commits suicide.

Do you mean, you've heard the fat lady singing from the mountain top?

Well, the most obvious things (beyond shorting the S&P) are: -- short real estate -- long resession-resistant sectors such as food and health services -- short the cyclicals More speculative: -- short US dollar -- long US bonds -- long precious metals Less speculative: -- play...

Does this mean that you are also reconsidering your "1326.7 top for many months" call, or does it still stand? To me, this market is looking for any excuse to go up, so I think your target resistance will be taken out pretty soon.

"Your missing my whole point, folks who do not spend all day monitoring the markets and have clerical or administrative duties (middle class) gather for lunch most every work day, most restaurants have TVs then their is radio in your cars." Ok, now I understand what you are saying. However...

You missed a few commas in your second post, which makes it ambiguous. But I suppose it doesn't matter, since you seem to be talking to yourself anyway. :) I will say, though, that the "big boys" don't make their trading decisions based on the views of the market reporters, as you seem to be...

"Let me put it slightly differently. A typical run in NQ is 5 points, the spread is almost always the tick (0.25), so your R is 20." To make it even more scientific, I would express both the spread and the volatility in terms of dollars per $100,000 amount traded, so that the ratio R can be...

"Would you perhaps like to rephrase the question wrt average volatility? Think about it." Right, it was worth thinking about it. The tightest spread would not do me any good if the market doesn't move. So, here is the rephrased question: Let V be the average volatility (on a 1 minute...

Suppose I found a small inefficiency in the market on the micro level, and I have an automated trading strategy to take advantage of it. By "micro", I mean the average duration of a trade of 2 minutes or so. Since the strategy involves very high frequency trading strategy, and the average profit...

Quote from Thorn: "At this point, I can confidently assert that the beginning of this thread marked the top and end of the 3 year bull run." So, according to your analysis, we are heading down for the next several years?

Well, if you trust the poll here, the people who forecast a 25bp hike outnumber those who forecast a 50bp hike by the rate of 77:9. If this is indeed the market consensus, it probably means that the market will rise slightly in case of the actual 25bp hike and drop substantially in case of a...