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The study analyzed seven million trades over the last 11 years, and found that trend following (as defined in the study) doesn't work. Now think of a loaded coin. You flip it seven million times, and it shows tails 85% of the time. Is there any room to argue that it may show heads more often...

The war is about to start.

Interesting. Shorting the top gainers is profitable according to the thread referenced above, and going long the top gainers is profitable, too, according to this thread. Does this mean I can double my profit by doing both? The simplicity of this strategy can't be beaten: I simply short and long...

Nah, the method will not work unless you use an inkjet printer. This is a very important ingredient of success. The idea is that while you print, it introduces an additional lag between the real time quote and the order time. And if the printer goes "out of paper", that's even better. The power...

Do you mean Jekyll and Hyde? I don't know who are the other two characters in your post are, but I am sure they are distinguished market analysts.

While the S&P certainly looks less attractive after the recent run up and the rising 10yr bond yield, the S&P's forward earnings yield of 6.37% is still well above the 10yr bond yield of 4.87%. Consider this: the differential between these two yields correctly predicted the stock market returns...

Here is my version, with a pink line. :)

Perhaps I am missing something, but are you saying that you have a position in 36 futures contracts using a 75K account?

Yes, and a good computer program will beat 99% of the good human chess players. In 1997, the world chess champion himself resigned to a piece of code, as you probably know. Today, he doesn't stand a chance.

The bots will only get better and better over time. I don't think there will be much left on the table for the manual traders.

What?

It would still be well below the S&P 500 forward earnings yield of 6.37%.

Can't wait to hear that 1435.5 is the new resistance.

I think you are willing to look at what appeals to you and close your eyes on what you don't want to see. Were it not the case, you would be equally amazed to see that these resistance lines are too obvious and are blown up every single time as soon as they get identified as such.

So, you already know where the flaw is, but want to see if the others can spot it? Is this a homework assignment of some sort?

You can't consistently win a coin flipping game over the long run, no matter which strategy or money management is employed. It's that simple. And if you add transaction costs (such as spread, slippage, and commissions) to every flip, you are guaranteed to consistently lose.

Just wanted to make sure that I understand this right. From my back test over the last 3 months, I got the following sequence of win/losses for 18 trades: 295 283 83 -79 395 -67 208 -192 8 220 -18 120 -30 133 -17 -5 -55 145 This amounts to $79.28 profit per trade, with...

Not before it gets to at least 1660. This is where the fair value is, 15% above from where we are right now.

[B] Umm, yes. Who is thorn and what is "ca$h"?

No good: Adderall side effects include impotence and Tourette's syndrome. If you acquire both, you may find yourself referring to your own genitalia using profane language.