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Actually, what matters is the differential between the stocks earnings yield (the reverse of P/E), and the 10yr bond yield. The stocks are underpriced by this yardstick, as well.

OK, let's look at trailing P/E. The market still looks inexpensive:

The current P/E ratio of S&P 500 is the lowest in the last 10 years, making the stocks very inexpensive. What's really insane is that the S&P is still below 1900, which is where it should be, considering where its earnings yield is compared to 10yr bond yield. So, if you think that it's insane...

Looks like $27K for today. Respectable. So, what changed your mind so much that you decided to trade against the premise of your own thread?

Your premise is right, but the conclusion is wrong. Actually, you are paying very low prices. The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio is at around 16, the lowest in 10 years or so. Also, the differential between the S&P 500 forward earnings yield and the 10yr bond yield is a positive 1.5%, forecasting...

So, I suppose what you are saying is that there is zero risk in oil, just like there is zero risk in S&P 500? So, what have we got left, metals and bonds? Is that where the risk dissipated to?

The term "black box" is used interchangeably to mean multiple things in trading: 1. A technical indicator which uses an unpublished and/or undocumented specification. You feed in the price/volume info, and out comes some number, such as 89.5, which presumably tells you where the market is...

So if I had $100,000 with that broker in the beginning of 2001, I would have $1,677,721.6 today? Which broker would that be?

The ticker is in the topleft corner.

5% per month is 79.6% annually. This rate of return turns $100,000 into more than a billion in just 16 years. And in 27 years, your account balance should reach 733 billion, which happens to be more than the gross domestic product of your entire country (Australia). Think you can do it?

In which currency?

Why do the targets keep changing all the time, is that how it's supposed to work? The initial "ultimate target" was 1445 (with an alternative count target of 1419.85), and now it's 1485? Can you post a chart with your wave forecast so that I can visualize these 5-3-5 or whatever it is that you...

That's an odd thing to say. It's like if you tried to bark to simulate a dog and stated that dogs don't want to cooperate with you. Why would they? It seems like you got it all backwards. The charts reflect the market, not the other way around. If somebody's chart is crooked, why would the...

Two things: 1. You don't want to measure the system perfromance using return on assets (which is what I assume ROA is). Raw return doesn't tell us anything about the risk involved. For all we know, the system you refer may have experienced a 99% drawdown. You are much better off with the...

What's the reading on this indicator now?

The Dow down 6 points is considered a dip these days? This is sheer madness.

Evidently, when it's upside down. Your record of making bad calls is pretty spectacular.

Yes, amalgama flown greenish perfect.

The payoff amounts are already taken into consideration in that paper: they are reflected in the average returns following the up and down trends. The evidence in that paper is overwhelming that fading the trend is consistently profitable, and following the trend is consistently unprofitable...