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Interesting charts. Looks like neither systematic nor discretionary traders made much money in the last 10 years?

The formula posted by OP does not tell you what leverage one should take. All it tells you what your leverage is, once you are in position. And the only three things that affect that number are account size, position size, and contract value. If you want the answer to the question "what is the...

Suppose you identified some 30 stocks which you believe would perform worse than the overall market. You could then sell short the basket of these 30 stocks, and go long the equivalent amount of the broad market. What you have now is a spread. If you are right (in that these 30 stocks would do...

Because the notional value of a contract is a component in figuring out the the size of the trade (or equivalently the effective leverage). It can be shown mathematically that any profitable system becomes unprofitable if you go beyond certain leverage.

I am trying to tell you an important thing: how I trade is not how you should trade. With regards to S/R, start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_and_resistance Have you read the "Market Wizards" series of books by Jack Schwager? This would give you an idea of the multitude of trading...

Give us your definition of support and resistance.

What does "solely support and resistance" mean? As pointed out above, S/R means different things to different people.

As wrbtrader mentions above, there are many different ways, and everyone does it differently. Simple moving averages, exponential moving averages, trendlines, swing highs/lows, market profile and pivots are more "traditional" ways of figuring our the S/R. Other people use more "occult" methods...

In the formula given by the OP, Notional Value = Current Future Price x Point Value The notional value is based on the current price of the futures contract, not the price of the underlying index. The formula is correct.

I think the question that the OP wanted to ask is this: "Can a plumber open a $15K account and make a living by day-trading bitcoins, so that he never has to replace those stinky septic pipes ever again?"

What does Leonard Barton say? With regards to Kasparov vs Deep Blue, chess engines made tremendous gains since 1996 in their play quality. Humans made very marginal gains. Back in 1996, we could have a debate about whether humans are better chess players than machines. This debate is now over...

Suppose you are offered to play the following game. We flip a coin. If it's heads, you lose your bet. If it's tails, you win twice the amount of the bet. You can play as many times as you want. The house sets the rule: you may not bet more than 95% of your account. Let's call it the margin...

Because your position sizing (or equivalently risk/exposure/leverage) should not be determined by the margin, but rather by the quality of your trading system.

I'll say it again. The margin determines the maximum leverage for a given futures contract. It gives you the upper bound on the number of open contracts that you can have with your account size. What the OP is discussing is how to calculate the actual leverage while in position. For example...

The margin tells you the maximum leverage you can take. The actual leverage can be less, depending on your exposure (i.e. the number of open contracts).

In your formula, the quantity (Index value x Point value) is the notional value of the contract. Your formula for calculating leverage is correct, but you get no Nobel prize.

What happened to all of these: Ruler says reshort 2442's Full swing short at 2443.25 Shorted ES 2452.5 Shorted ES 2457.5 Shorted 2467 Added 2468 Added 2469.25 Added 2470.5

I've avoided all "animal" patterns ever since the "duck" pattern failed: The ones that I follow now are all human-oriented: "hanging man", "man shooting a star", "hammer-man", "wonder woman", and "masturbating man".

The OP made it very clear in the very first post that he/she is paper trading.

Yes. OP, please mark your entries and exits with the proper labels, such as "Exhibit A", and submit the brokerage statements for each execution, along with the order tracking numbers, and account numbers. And use Latin for proper speak.