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I also thought it might work - but it doesn't. The number came as I thought - lower than consensus. There is no reaction on crosses.

You gotta be flexible. FOREX is full of bankrupted accounts of people who think they are always right. Fundamentally $$$ goes down the drain in the 2006. It's time to open your eyes.

I don't want to impose anything, but I personally believe it will happen otherwise. You're gonna lose money, my friend.

You are crossing the line mr.

This is indeed weird. This could be if someone knew FED will tighten to keep the dollar firm. On the other hand though I think it is a bad strategy. Further hikes would not force market yields up. On the contrary - investors would realize - the market is being frozen by FED and a push...

This could be a 2 year leap. What is the expiration date of that put?

Mr. Ivanovich, this was not nice at all. I would like to remind you - you took a position against the market at 1.2008 and you had it stopped out with a serious loss. We all make mistakes. It pertains to our investments and the tone we use in discussions as well. If you have comments...

Same direction. Rapid instant moves are followed by corrections and this mean the move shall be continued. Besides - it is not always instant to learn what the news are. It is safe to assume you will always learn the news later than pros. Here the move was within 1 minute and the correction...

There is no risk in my opinion. Just wait for the data, look for the price move after it. If the price moves up rapidly - there should be a correction within 5 minutes after the information. This is where you want to open your position. It works most of the time - it worked today.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e25-11da-8ef9-0000779e2340.html China signals reserves switch away from dollar By Geoff Dyer in Shanghai and Andrew Balls in Washington Published: January 5 2006 20:13 | Last updated: January 6 2006 02:43 Dollar and renminbiChina indicated on...

There is one serious reason. Reversed flow for the 3rd quarter. Historically speaking it was allways followed by the weak dollar period.

Well, it also did not go lower. That's a concern. I'd never think of anything artificial in EURO. It seems to be aiming higher locally. That's it.

Well, I closed my shorts now. It doesn't look too good. Booked... +3 pips. Wow. The market doesn't favor shorts.

this is exactly what I meant. A major bank SELLING EUR. I am short at the moment. I think I will keep it until tomorrow with a very, very tight stop... cheers.

Well, this could be time for a correction at last. This looks like a major bank selling. Also I see signs of weakness on charts. I am thinking about going short now. But still usure for 100%. There could be one more move up within 2 days. What do you guys think? Short it or not?

It will not influence the M1 figures in the beginning. What it would do - it would push the UST bonds into inversion as in GB. Simply speaking the FOMC policy to cease publishing eurodollar and M3 will unevitably push bonds higher. This will drain the market's liquidity and slow the economy...

Ivan, your strategy was good. I would short it as well at that point. The only thing that made me have opposite opinion is the begining of the year. Normally a large spike as this would trigger a correction. But it's January. January in FOREX is always wild. That's why we have 1.2122 now...

Yes, a little bit. Precisely speaking I mean sales will drop.

SIMPLE: - credit crunch + M1 shrink. M1 shrinks now. Credit crunch coming. That's it.

300 MA is at ~1.2540 this is high probability target