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I show a last for the May 120 call (expiring in 18 days) on coffee as .85. That trade may have occurred early in the day, and I compute fair value as 1.00 given a reasonable IV. But, let's just assume it's $.85. So, you buy that 120 call for $.85. You'd actually pay $375 x $.85 = $318.75...

What about tail risk? Prediction is to within a degree of reliability, not an absolute. Are you saying I can't predict the sun will rise tomorrow, because there's a "tail risk" it won't?

There are definitely some predictable events that will result in semi-predictable implied volatility movements. Earnings, dividends, acquisitions, crop reports. But, in the absence of predicting the end result of the volatility event, profiting from the predictable IV movement is near impossible.

This is a lot like asking, "I think a stock will go up, how many shares should I buy?" How much risk are you willing to take? How much money do you want to make when you're right? How fast do you think it will move? The choice of strike and expiration is a balance of all 3 of those questions.

IB Group LLC has plenty of massive-debt-laundering opportunities, I'm sure. :-)

Alternatively, you could just not drive drunk.

We just came through a period in our collective history where "Flip This House" and "Sell This House" are two of the more popular TV shows. There was a period of 3 years where you could buy pretty much any house anywhere, sell it again in a few months and pocket 30% profit. Borrowing on a...

Completely agree (on the shareholder part). Still, I don't feel sorry for the borrower either. I mostly feel sorry for me because I (and most other Americans, at least) are probably about to pay for it.

I guess these are my two biggest problems with this argument. No one tells me I can afford something. This country has been capitalist for far too long for someone to not look at anything a salesman says with a jaded eye. Anyone who has purchased a car (new or used) has learned this lesson...

Regardless of what the ends are, this means is easily the most ridiculous I've heard repeated over and over. At the House hearings, they had a 70+ year old grandmother complaining how she was tricked into taking a mortgage she couldn't afford. Do we now need laws to require people to compute...

Quote from triggertrader: i know from trading futures that the first notice date means the last day you are allowed to be long and the last trading date means the last day you can be short This is a very discount-broker view of the world. You are certainly "allowed" to be long or short...

03/09/2007 KO Apr-07 Last Trading Date The Apr-07 options have a Last Trading Date of 3/9/07.

Same here. I've had enough bad pit fills in softs to last a lifetime. If you don't want to trade Sugar, then don't.

For what volatility? When I compute greeks on a single strike, I'm using the midpoint of the bid/ask to get the implied volatility, then plugging that back in. Some may use bid, some ask, some last. Some may compute the IV for the entire expiration month using a weighted average. No one way...

Fantastic!!!!!!! Way to go, IB!

No! This line is always used to defend IB, and while there are some that post "I can't get my router to work" bugs and demand fixes, IB is not handling *real* bug reports any better. I have tickets open since January where the CSR answering does not *read* the ticket, and continues to send me...

Unfortunately with an average daily volume of 33 spread out across 11 contracts, the answer to your first question is almost certainly "no" no matter how large a population EliteTrader has. :-) Interactive Brokers will let you trade these, and there's apparently a market maker. For Chicago...

The first date you list is the First Trading Day for the Mar-09 option. The second date is the Last Trading Day for the May-07 option.

NYMEX decided to attempt to pre-empt NYBOTs acquisition by ICE. As a result, they introduced all the soft electronic contracts right before ICE could role out NYBOT's contracts. In short, there are actually THREE ways to trade Sugar #11--NYMEX electronic, NYBOT/ICE electronic, NYBOT/ICE pit...

I just got out of a 2OK7-CK7 spread (yesterday, at least a day too early, apparently). I got out because it looked like oats were starting to get into a range where there might be some resistance, and the oat/corn spread was as well. But, it didn't really seem to slow it down today. Oats are...