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Is there a way to tell if the Tokyo-to-Europe market for GBPUSD or EURUSD will make a strong move (80 pips or more, either direction) vs. fluctuating up and down by 40-60 pips or so? My estimate is it fluctuates about 35-40% of the time, vs. the directional move about 60-65% of the time. This...

How many people do you know who have a job somehow related to their college degree, especially years afterward? Most people I know don't. I read one stat that said the average person changes their career 5-9 times throughout their life. This would imply the point of the degree is not...

Hi everyone -- thanks for your input, this helped me think things through. I've come to agree with asiaprop the outcome should have the highest weight, after all, I was originally looking for something to help with the combined outcome probabilities. But I also added in the other factors because...

For your thread title, wouldn't it be better to go long with the VXN?

Trader666 -- thanks !! From that wiki article, I think you've led me to exactly what I was looking for. When starting this, I had a vague gut feeling something was not quite right, and this line from the article clearly states the problem in words: "In summary, Parrondo's paradox is an...

Sorry, not sure how to verify that. Real life has presented so many unbelievable events and busted so many well-trusted truths that I have no confidence in what I believe or don't believe -- so if he made me believe something, it would impossible to tell if I actually believed or doubted it.

thanks for the suggestion. I'll have to research for more background info for my own understanding and come back to this, but I think I get the idea you're pointing towards. Further, it sounds like your vote is to weight the returns more heavily than the entry time, direction, or other factors...

Thanks for the feedback, I find throw an idea out there, you get a couple of leads to follow. As for my strategies, ok, I'll take your suggestions, see if I can build on that. Thanks for your input and feedback, it has given me more than I started with. "No number of samples is statistically...

Oh -- forgot to add that was over 4 months, but it's the basic idea. Use 4 months, 1 month, 2 days etc. and see how it changes over time. 24 for statistical significance -- cool, I presented a large number because usually on other posts I see the first thing someone gets slammed for is not...

I've been using 2 strategies for developing a score and model. I chose them because I think they are fairly close, wanted to start with easy ones first. strategy 1 - 57 strategy 2 - 65 matches = 55 within a 12 bar window. same direction = 80% win-win or loss-loss - 73% win-loss or loss-win...

I've done that in the past with the 2 issue prices (actual prices and percent changes from bar to bar). That's a good starting point for strategies. I think it would work best with strategies that have close signals so the profit or loss could be variable. I always use fixed stops and limits...

Yes, but I meant in general, so to compare any 2 of the 30-40 strategies I have. For example, suppose one is based on a MA crossover, the other on a RSI oversold/oversold basis. I suppose in theory these should be independent as oneis a trend follower and one is an oscillator. But I'm hoping...

Suppose you have 2 strategies on 2 different but closely related issues. How do you tell if the strategies are independent or not? This is for the purpose of generating an outcome estimate; if the strategies are dependent, the outcome estimate based on the strategies' win/loss ratios will be...

Suppose you have 2 strategies in Forex. One is on EURUSD, the other on GBPUSD. How do you figure if they are independent or following the same moves? It's important because when you look at the win ratios to get an estimate of the return, the probability estimate will be different if they are...

I saw one anthropologist give a lecture. One good point was that different cultures answered the question of how humans could survive, and further that different cultures showed there is no one reality, rather several interpretations; given that, learning about different cultures outside our own...

Check out DOG -- supposed to move inverse to dow, but dropped from 50 or so to low 30's. Sounds like a bug to me.

I love the solitude. I used to work in an office (not trading) and the people were great. But I know my personality -- I just don't like to socialize much. Most important -- be honest with yourself, don't just think you are supposed to be some way because that's how most people are or it's what...