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That's wonderful. Who benefits if that's true? Right now the dollar is strong and oil is down. Maybe it's just a dollar play and the rest of the fundamentals are following. I wonder if the dollar were down would this weakness in oil even be happening .

The correlations change. It used to be that a selloff in the equities of any magnitude would lead to a flight to the USD. That doesn't seem true now.

You are probably not going to find it here. You would need to find the guys who trade the bonds and talk to them. They might be willing to talk cause they are most likely quite lonely. I suggest a road trip to NYC. I'm serious.

Yes I just saw that. It's still been showing some resilience against the dollar in the past week. I think if we see a turn that might be the one to be in.

Maybe try a new post for info on currency options

Try just accepting who you are first and then maybe your trading will get better. The present moment is the only place from which I can act. Not tomorrow or yesterday. And I really only need to take care of myself, and share with others if I can. And I don't have to do it perfectly, but I'll...

The etf FXA has options I believe but spreads not great last time I checked. I thought CME had currency options.

I'm a trader. I'm not allowed to think too much. I'll just let the market tell me which way it wants to go. The only sign of strength right now is in the Aussie, and that's pretty marginal. All other attempts to rally lately have been met with failure, including gold. Why try to reinvent the wheel?

While you were fixated on buying something that is losing value, the Australian dollar rallied out of a daily triangle against the upward dollar trend. There were probably several other really good setups you missed this week while you were looking at oil. And there will be more in the coming...

My thoughts on this are why are you trying to pick a bottom? I would short rebounds until the market really turns. Then you are going with the flow instead of peeing upwind. It seems harder because oil seems so cheap. But it might be expensive later. Inexpensive commodities tend to become more...

I believe Charles Biederman's numbers are more current if he's still around. Market Trim Tabs or something. Not exactly the same info probably

There's also a possibility of a broadening top where they take out the trendlines on either side of the range and then pull back into the range. Difficult to trade either way. Rather see a compression--some sort of a triangle. Take a look at Aussie dollar. Just broke out of a big...

Right but wasn't the premise of the thread that volatility would increase? Maybe I'm missing something. We are in a trading range by definition but that's most of the time anyway.

OK what evidence, if any, do you have that the sideways move will be less than before? The tough part about these late bull market moves is that sometimes the really beat up stocks rally for no reason other than just being oversold--the fundamentals don't support it, and the leaders fall off as...

Traders absorb each other's positions once an equilibrium is reached. You need to define volatility. In most cases in equities it means selling, breaking of support. Fear. That doesn't happen in trading ranges.

OK so there are more traders with open positions in the previous value area What does this mean? When you get to a balance area it doesn't necessarily mean greater volatility. Actually the reverse is often true.

Probably. In that case it would just be simpler, worth paying the spread if you're negative. I guess you still have some currency risk, which could work to your advantage.

Find me the guy who's been holding gold the last five years and tell me what his plans are.

Another way to look at this is--what is the average holding period for any underlying? It's a lot shorter than it used to be. The people you are talking about exist--but not in numbers large enough to impact the market except at extremes. They tend to buy high and sell low. Most of the trading...

I think you would need some behavioral economics to back this up. Take a random sample of 10k investors over the last 30 major selloffs in any market. How many are left holding until price goes back to the level you have chosen?' How many deserted their positions when they couldn't take the...