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take a look at Optionetics Platinum software. You can create and backtest options trades with it. Requires a monthly subscription.

If the spot just sits there, you're probably not going to get a jump in IV. Vega will help you figure out how much the option will increase or decrease in value for every point change in IV. I know some traders that play the volatility rush ahead of earnings with straddles. I never have...

I have before, but don't anymore. Before the exchanges open, trading is thin. Most of the stocks aren't trading and the cash indexes aren't being updated. Not enough to work with, IMO, but if it is working for you, go for it.

Some big money was setting up bearish ratio spreads in POT before earnings. Maybe looking for a move back to 180.00. They almost got there Friday. http://whatstrading.com/2008/07/23/potash-corp-pot-19857-809/

That was a huge move. My experience is, after big rallies like this, you get a day or two of follow through, at least. Of course, it's all up to the equity markets. bond traders can't think for themselves. lol new home sales could give a lift too.

You're probrably right. Since it's the only Dow stock that was part of the original index in 1896, it will probably be around for another 30 or 40 years at least. Probably a good long term buy

today's reaction was also due to the big drop in crude oil. it seems like there are a lot of problems still facing the industry. I just can't get excited about it when there are so many other good companies in good industries, but that's just me.

You could always play it like this http://whatstrading.com/2008/07/22/general-electric-company-ge-2850-293/ with a straddle or strangle.

XLF up 39 percent in a week. I wouldn't get in front of that, but I don't think the problems are over. Far from it.

I saw that too. bad tic.

Henry Bloget says look for downside in revs. http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/google-goog-q2-earnings-preview-downside-risk-to-revenue- Options market priced for a $26 move. http://whatstrading.com/2008/07/17/google-inc-goog-52983-108/

maybe I misunderstand, but i would never work on a system, just so I can trade opposite to what it is telling me to do. If it doesn't work, I would do away with it and start over. market's are always changing. when one system works, people catch on and it stops working. my experience is that...

why not look at both?

Understanding order flow is not an exact science, because there is a lot that can go on and much of the info is useless, but what if you see a spread order of 12,000 contracts in XYZ stock, would that get your attention.? For example, look at WFC yesterday with a massive 12,000 August...

I agree. Great book. Needs to be updated though, because a lot has changed. I think he wrote another one more recently, but I haven't read it.

yes, trades can be canceled after the fact if there has been an error. But, I would suggest never entering an order that you don't want to get filled, even if you think it's ridiculous. You just never know.

Are you sure? did you call them? Call around on the list here http://www.cmegroup.com/education/find-a-broker/north-america.html

That might be a good solution. WhatsTrading.com posted an interesting summary (below) about what happened last week. The spike in vols in a number of other financial names seems to suggest that the market is very worried about possible spillover from the problems with FNM and FRE. The big...

200 bps. wow, we in Japan What about crude oil? what if it continues to fall? it's been getting hammered for two days and bonds aren't doing much. is it a net positive because of inflation expectations or net negatvie because falling oil better for economy. or does it matter?

I was suprised bonds didn't get whacked when the equities turned aroond this afternoon. I went short around 10:45 and then got stopped out. I think the path of least to resistance is to the downside, but as long as the financials are falling apart in stockland, bonds will stay bid. Friendly talk...